万联证券：万联晨会-20250127

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.7% to 3252.63 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.15%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.36%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.22 trillion yuan [1][6] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index closed up by 1.86% at 20066.19 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.15% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 2.06% [1][6] - The U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down by 0.32% to 44424.25 points, the S&P 500 down by 0.29% to 6101.24 points, and the Nasdaq down by 0.5% to 19954.3 points [1][6] Important News - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to upgrade commodity consumption and stabilize the consumer market in 2025, focusing on initiatives such as promoting "AI + consumption" and enhancing service consumption [7] - Among the 31 provinces in China, 30 have reported their GDP data for 2024, with five provinces reaching new trillion-yuan milestones. Jiangsu, Hubei, and Anhui led in actual growth rates, while Hubei, Sichuan, and Fujian led in nominal growth rates [2][7] Industry Insights - The 2025 Spring Festival film season is expected to feature six major films, with a strong potential for box office growth due to favorable policies and sufficient supply [12][14] - The 2024 Spring Festival box office reached a record high of 8.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.86%, driven by an extended holiday and the overlap with Valentine's Day [12][13] - The 2025 Spring Festival box office is projected to reach 13.695 billion yuan, with top films expected to include "Nezha: The Devil's Child" and "Detective Chinatown 1900" [13][14]