造纸轻工行业造纸产业链数据每周速递：本周现货木浆延续上涨态势

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [7] Core Views - The light industry manufacturing index decreased by 0.41%, underperforming the market by 2.37 percentage points; the paper sub-sector increased by 0.49%, also underperforming the market by 1.47 percentage points. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.96% [3][13] - The four major sub-sectors of light industry ranked by growth are paper, packaging and printing, furniture, and cultural and entertainment products, with paper and packaging and printing sub-sectors increasing by 0.49% and 0.24% respectively [3][15] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light industry manufacturing index fell by 0.41%, while the paper sub-sector rose by 0.49%, indicating a relative underperformance against the broader market [3][13] - The paper sub-sector ranked 20th among 28 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification [3][14] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The national waste paper price decreased by 60 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices remained stable. The current price for national waste paper is 1499 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.8% decrease [22] - The current prices for hardwood and softwood pulp increased by 87 CNY/ton and 65 CNY/ton respectively, with hardwood pulp priced at 4838 CNY/ton and softwood pulp at 6585 CNY/ton [23][33] - The total inventory of hardwood pulp at two major Chinese ports was 1.51 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% [23][31] Investment Recommendations and Targets - It is recommended to buy shares of leading integrated companies in the industry such as Sun Paper Industry (002078), Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733), Huawang Technology (605377), and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) due to expected price recovery in cultural and white cardboard paper [5] - The paper industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in supply and demand dynamics, with a significant slowdown in new supply growth anticipated for 2025 [5] Profitability Levels - Profitability levels for finished paper products showed divergence, with large enterprises in double-sided paper and copperplate paper increasing profits by 19 CNY/ton, while small enterprises saw declines of 43 CNY/ton [40][42] - The profitability of white cardboard paper for large enterprises increased by 13 CNY/ton, while small enterprises experienced a decrease of 16 CNY/ton [44] Production and Inventory - The cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard in 2024 is projected to grow by 10.0%, with a total output of 15.847 million tons [50][52] - The inventory of finished products in the paper and paper products industry is estimated at 722 billion CNY, with a significant year-on-year increase [20]