周策略 | 需求进入淡季,钢材累库启动-20250127

Economic Overview - In 2024, state-owned enterprises in China are projected to achieve total operating revenue of CNY 84,722.58 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[3] - The total profit is expected to reach CNY 4,350.46 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%[3] - By the end of December, the asset-liability ratio stands at 64.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[3] Commodity Market Insights - Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.09% to USD 77.49 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures fell by 0.03% to USD 74.60 per barrel[5] - The EIA reported a reduction of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil inventory, bringing the total to 412 million barrels[5] - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 4,000 barrels per day to 1,347.7 million barrels per day, while exports increased by 43,700 barrels per day to 4.515 million barrels per day[5] Steel and Iron Ore Production - China's crude steel production for 2024 is estimated at 1,005.09 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year[9] - The iron output is projected at 851.74 million tons, down 2.3% year-on-year[9] - Steel exports are expected to reach 110.716 million tons, marking a 22.7% increase year-on-year, the highest in nine years[9] Market Trends - The market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown in demand as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to increased inventory levels in steel[9] - The PX market is facing downward pressure due to increased downstream PTA maintenance and a lack of strong demand[7] - The fuel oil market shows mixed trends, with high-sulfur fuel oil futures rising by 0.14% to CNY 3,613 per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil futures fell by 0.59% to CNY 4,015 per ton[6]