房地产行业周报：多家房企发布业绩预亏公告

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with many companies reporting continued declines in performance for 2024. Some companies, like Poly Developments (600048, Buy), are still maintaining positive profitability despite a decrease in profit scale, projecting a revenue of 312.8 billion yuan for 2024, down 9.8%, and a net profit of 5 billion yuan, down 58.4% [3][51] - A significant number of companies are expected to report losses for 2024, with *ST Jinke (000656, Not Rated) forecasting a loss of 20.5 to 28.5 billion yuan, a substantial increase from a loss of 8.7 billion yuan in 2023 [3][51] - The sales volume of new homes has been continuously shrinking over the past two years, leading to a general decline in revenue for real estate companies in 2024. The top 100 real estate companies are expected to see a 27% year-on-year decline in sales in 2024, with revenue pressures expected to persist into 2025 [3][52] - The report emphasizes that while policies aimed at stabilizing the market are in place, the recovery in new home sales will take time, with signs of revenue stabilization for companies potentially appearing in the second half of 2026 [3][52] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the fourth week of January 2025, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -1.3%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3832.86, with a weekly increase of 0.5%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2237.03, with a weekly decrease of 0.8% [11][12] Company Announcements - Several companies, including *ST Jinke, Zhujiang Shares, and Rongsheng Development, have released their 2024 performance forecasts, indicating a trend of losses for many [3][51][42] - The report highlights that *ST Jinke expects a net loss of 20.5 to 28.5 billion yuan for 2024, while Rongsheng Development anticipates a loss of 720 to 950 million yuan [40][42] Policy Environment - National policies have supported the construction and delivery of 14 million housing units, with a total loan amount for "white list" projects reaching 5.6 trillion yuan [14][15] - Local policies include the expansion of "white list" projects in Hubei to 611, with a cumulative investment of 155.363 billion yuan, and new land supply plans in Beijing for 2025 [14][15] Sales and Inventory Data - In the fourth week, new home sales in 44 major cities increased by 4.8% compared to the previous week, totaling 18,300 units, while second-hand home sales decreased by 16.8% [16][22] - The inventory of new homes in 18 major cities increased to 782,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 14.4 months, indicating a growing inventory pressure [22][16]