多家房企发布业绩预亏公告

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with many companies reporting continued declines in performance for 2024. Some companies, like Poly Developments (600048, Buy), are still maintaining positive profitability despite a decrease in profit scale, with expected revenue of 312.8 billion yuan for 2024, down 9.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5 billion yuan, down 58.4% year-on-year. However, most companies are expected to shift from profit to loss or experience increased losses, such as *ST Jinke (000656, Not Rated), which anticipates a loss of 20.5 to 28.5 billion yuan for 2024, significantly up from a loss of 8.7 billion yuan in 2023 [3][51][40]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the fourth week of January 2025, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -1.3%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3832.86, with a weekly increase of 0.5%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2237.03, with a weekly decrease of 0.8% [11][12]. Sales and Inventory Data - New home sales in 44 major cities reached 18,300 units in the fourth week, an increase of 4.8% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities decreased by 16.8% to 16,800 units. The inventory in 18 major cities increased to 782,000 units, up by 82,800 units from the previous week, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 14.4 months, an increase of 1.8 months [16][22]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The financial regulatory authority has supported the delivery of 14 million housing units through a financing coordination mechanism, with loans for "white list" projects reaching 5.6 trillion yuan. Local policies include the expansion of "white list" projects in Hubei to 611, with a cumulative investment of 155.363 billion yuan, and new land supply plans in Beijing for 2025 [14][15]. Company Announcements - Several companies, including *ST Jinke, Rongsheng Development, and others, have released their 2024 performance forecasts, indicating widespread losses. For instance, Rongsheng Development expects a net loss of 720 to 950 million yuan, while *ST Jinke anticipates a loss of 20.5 to 28.5 billion yuan [40][42][43].