山西证券：研究早观点-20250127

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,252.63, up by 0.70% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also experienced gains of 1.15% and 1.36% respectively [2] Coal Industry Insights - In December, coal supply continued to recover, with a total raw coal production of 4.39 billion tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.20% [5] - The overall coal supply for 2024 is expected to slightly rise compared to 2023, with a cumulative production of 4.759 billion tons, reflecting a 1.30% year-on-year growth [5] - Manufacturing investment remains robust, with fixed asset investment growing by 3.2% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment surged by 9.20% [5] - The demand for coal, particularly for thermal power, is anticipated to improve, although the prices for thermal and coking coal remain under pressure [5] Transportation Equipment Sector - The railway sector is projected to achieve record-high passenger and freight volumes in 2024, with total transportation revenue reaching 990.18 billion yuan, a 2.7% increase from 2023 [9] - The passenger volume for the entire year is expected to exceed 4.312 billion, marking an 11.9% year-on-year increase [9] - The freight volume for 2024 is also expected to grow, with significant investments in railway infrastructure projected to reach 850.6 billion yuan, up by 11.3% [9] Solar Energy Sector - The solar energy market is showing signs of recovery, with a projected increase in domestic photovoltaic installations to 277 GW in 2024, representing a 28.4% year-on-year growth [13] - The supply chain is expected to gradually alleviate the current overcapacity, with production rates for silicon materials and solar panels at historical lows [13] - Price trends are anticipated to reverse, with inventory levels decreasing and cost pressures prompting price increases in the latter half of 2024 [13] Consumer Services Sector - The consumer services industry is experiencing a shift towards quality and cost-effectiveness, with a notable increase in demand for mid-range and high-end hotels [17] - The overall performance of the social service industry is expected to improve, driven by a recovery in domestic tourism and increased consumer spending [17] - The ice and snow economy is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach over 970 billion yuan in 2024 [17] Company-Specific Insights - The company 咸亨国际 (605056.SH) anticipates a net profit increase of 86% to 148% in 2024, driven by successful expansion into new sectors [17] - The company is positioned in the MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Operations) market, which is transitioning towards centralized procurement, enhancing its growth potential [18] - The company expects significant revenue growth from new sectors such as oil and gas, alongside maintaining a strong performance in its core electric grid business [18]