氟化工行业深度研究报告：制冷剂行业2025年展望：供给的反抗的优等生，2025年有望继续上演强进攻性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the refrigerant sector, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [8][79]. Core Insights - The refrigerant sector is anticipated to continue its strong performance in 2025, driven by favorable supply-demand dynamics and price elasticity that the market has yet to fully recognize [15][9]. - The report highlights that the supply constraints are tightening, with a shift towards a more concentrated market due to strong policy enforcement [15][9]. - The performance of refrigerant companies is expected to improve as non-refrigerant business segments recover, providing additional earnings flexibility [15][9]. Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the refrigerant sector is approximately 149 billion yuan, with 8 listed companies [3]. - The expected production of household air conditioners in 2025 is projected to reach 201 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [9][20]. - The main refrigerants, R32 and R22, have reached historical price highs, with R32 priced at 43,000 yuan/ton and R22 at 33,000 yuan/ton as of December 31, 2024, reflecting increases of 153% and 69% respectively since the beginning of the year [16][17]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the supply of refrigerants is expected to improve in 2025 due to clearer quota policies and the anticipated demand from the continued implementation of the "old-for-new" appliance replacement policy [9][11]. - The production quota for R22 in 2025 is set to decrease by 3.14 million tons, a reduction of 17% compared to 2024, which is expected to drive prices significantly higher [11][50]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for R22, primarily used in the after-sales market for household air conditioning, remains relatively inelastic, suggesting that price increases will be well-received [11][50]. Price Trends and Profitability - The report forecasts that the price of R32 and R22 will continue to rise in 2025, with R32's price ceiling potentially linked to the cost of fourth-generation refrigerants, which are currently priced above 200,000 yuan/ton [10][43]. - The profitability of major companies in the refrigerant sector is expected to improve, with projected P/E ratios for leading firms such as Juhua and Dongyue at 12.8 and 11.2 respectively [7][55]. - The report notes that the long-term price elasticity of refrigerants remains underestimated, with significant potential for price increases as supply constraints tighten [10][15]. Key Companies to Watch - Juhua Co., Ltd. is identified as a leading player in the refrigerant market, holding the largest production quota and expected to benefit the most from price increases [57]. - Dongyue Group is highlighted for its strong position in the second-generation refrigerant market, with significant quota holdings that position it well for future price elasticity [59]. - Sanmei Co., Ltd. is noted for its focus on refrigerants, with a simple product structure that allows for significant profit contribution from price increases [61].