2025年军工及新材料行业投资策略报告：十四五收官乘势而上，更扬云帆立潮头

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the military and new materials sectors, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities in these industries [7]. Core Insights - The military and new materials industry is currently in a high cost-performance investment phase, with expectations for a significant improvement in the fundamental outlook in 2025, coinciding with the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the beginning of the 15th [2][19]. - The military sector is experiencing a surge in mergers and acquisitions, with record-high transaction amounts, driven by policy support and a shift towards quality over quantity in asset management [3][59]. - The future direction of military equipment development is towards cost reduction, with a notable increase in military trade demand following the recent airshow, where contracts worth approximately 285.6 billion yuan were signed [4][72]. - New materials are positioned as a crucial support for industrialization, with a focus on strategic emerging industries, particularly in areas like rare earth magnetic materials and composite materials [5][238]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The military sector's index rose by 7.08% in 2024, ranking 10th among 31 primary industries, but did not show independent market performance due to a lack of significant improvement in fundamentals [16]. - The military sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 377.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.73%, with net profit down 27.17% to 21.70 billion yuan [23]. Investment Logic - The report highlights the importance of the military and non-ferrous metals sectors, driven by persistent geopolitical conflicts and rising defense budgets globally [41][42]. - The military sector is expected to benefit from ongoing mergers and acquisitions, with significant policy support enhancing the development of high-tech and new productivity sectors [58]. Subsector Analysis - Aerospace: The sector is seeing innovation in military aircraft, with a projected demand for approximately 1,000 new fighter jets over the next decade [83][90]. - Aerospace Engines: The demand for small turbofan engines is increasing, particularly for UAVs, with significant advancements in domestic engine technology [99][104]. - Military Intelligence: The shift towards intelligent warfare is expected to drive demand for smart weapons and systems, enhancing the military's operational capabilities [108][110]. - Satellite Internet: The global satellite industry is entering a new cycle, with significant growth expected in low-orbit satellite communications [116][120]. - Unmanned Equipment: The use of drones is transforming modern warfare, with a growing market for military UAVs expected to outpace manned aircraft [140][141]. - Long-range Firepower: The demand for long-range artillery systems is increasing, driven by their effectiveness in modern combat scenarios [146][149]. - Rare Earth Materials: The implementation of new regulations is expected to stabilize the supply-demand dynamics in the rare earth sector, with significant applications in high-tech industries [160][164]. - Tin and Tungsten: The demand for tin is rising due to its critical role in electronics, while tungsten remains essential for high-performance applications in various industries [171][179]. - Composite Materials: The aerospace sector's demand for advanced composite materials is expected to grow, driven by innovations in lightweight and high-strength materials [190][209]. - Nuclear Power: The nuclear sector is poised for growth, with significant investments in new reactors and technology expected to drive market expansion [210][222]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth areas within the military sector, including aerospace, engines, intelligent systems, satellite internet, UAVs, long-range firepower, and nuclear technology [238]. - In the new materials sector, emphasis is placed on carbon fiber, tin-tungsten metals, and rare earth magnetic materials as key investment opportunities [238].