农林牧渔行业周报：猪价节前小幅反弹不改长期回落趋势宠物食品乘风国内外扩容业绩增长亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the pig farming industry [2][6] Core Views - The report indicates that pig prices are expected to show a declining trend quarter by quarter in 2025, with an estimated average price of 12 yuan/kg for the year [4][24] - The report highlights the ongoing expansion of the pet food market, with significant growth expected for leading companies in 2024 due to increased domestic demand and recovering overseas orders [7][29] - The outdoor sportswear segment is anticipated to see long-term growth, with improved sales performance in Q4 2024 following a challenging Q3 [8][31] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs has decreased to 15.4 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decline of 0.33 yuan/kg, while a short-term price rebound occurred before the Spring Festival [4][22] - The number of breeding sows is expected to continue increasing, despite a slight decrease reported by the Ministry of Agriculture, with estimates suggesting a rise in breeding sow inventory from other data sources [4][24] - The average price of piglets has risen to 483.81 yuan/head, reflecting a 7.97% week-on-week increase, but the report suggests this trend may not be sustainable [5][27] - Companies with cost advantages and strong financial positions are recommended for investment, as they are likely to perform better in a challenging market environment [5][28] Pet Economy - The pet food market is expanding, with leading companies like Zhongchong and Petty expected to report significant profit increases in 2024, driven by both domestic and international demand [7][29] - Factors contributing to the recovery of overseas orders include inventory digestion, favorable exchange rates, and increased stocking tendencies among North American clients [7][29] - The report anticipates intensified competition in the pet food sector, with a focus on brand development and market share expansion among leading companies [7][30] Outdoor Sportswear - The report notes a significant recovery in sales for outdoor sportswear brands in Q4 2024, with companies like Xtep and Anta reporting high single-digit to 50% year-on-year growth [8][31] - The overall market for sportswear is expected to continue expanding, with various segments likely to achieve notable growth [8][31]