Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to enter a second inflationary phase, with a short interest rate cut cycle likely ending by Q3 2025[4] - China's economic growth is projected to stabilize around 5% in 2025, driven by domestic demand and investment in emerging industries[4] - The EU's retail sales index showed a year-on-year growth of 2.8% in September 2024, indicating a recovery in consumer spending[4] Group 2: Commodity and Market Trends - Commodity prices are anticipated to continue an upward trend until Q3 2025, driven by increased demand from China and the US[4] - The US retail sales saw a month-on-month increase of 1.2% in July 2024, reflecting strong consumer demand[16] - China's stock market is expected to experience a bullish trend, with significant inflows from both domestic and international investors, potentially reaching new highs by summer 2025[98] Group 3: Emerging Markets - India's economic growth forecast for 2024 has been raised to 6.9%, with expectations of 6.6% growth in 2025, supported by a large population and increasing commodity consumption[4] - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with December 2024 exports to ASEAN reaching $59.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%[73]
2025年全球经济和大类资产白皮书：全球经济：景气度回升 权益、商品机会仍存
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-01-27 08:12