一图看懂 | 2024年1月PMI点评:春节假期扰动,产需均有回落

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The Manufacturing PMI for January is 49.1%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous value of 50.1%[1] - The Non-manufacturing PMI for January is 50.2%, down by 2 percentage points from the previous value of 52.2%[1] - The Composite PMI for January is 50.1%, a decline of 2.1 percentage points from the previous value of 52.2%[1] Group 2: Positive Factors - The manufacturing PMI's factory price and raw material purchase sub-items have shown improvement, while raw material and finished product inventories continue to decrease[3] - The Non-manufacturing PMI and Composite PMI remain in the expansion range, indicating ongoing growth in certain sectors[3] Group 3: Negative Factors - The Manufacturing PMI has fallen back into the contraction range, with new orders, new export orders, production, and imports all showing marginal weakness[3] - The construction industry PMI has significantly declined, reflecting seasonal impacts[3] Group 4: Sector Analysis - In manufacturing, industries such as food and beverage, textiles, and non-ferrous metal processing have seen production and new order indices enter the contraction range, contributing to the overall PMI decline[4] - In non-manufacturing, despite a decline in construction PMI, sectors related to travel and consumption have improved, driven by the Spring Festival effect, keeping the Composite PMI in the expansion range[4] Group 5: Future Outlook - Fiscal financing processes are expected to accelerate post-holiday, alongside policies promoting equipment updates and consumer goods exchanges, which may support demand recovery[4] - Improved construction conditions may lead to increased production activity, providing support for future PMI readings[4]