化工行业周报：2025年1月第4周

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - Recent US sanctions on Iran and Russia have strengthened oil prices, but also increased the risk of price corrections due to OPEC's efforts to stabilize oil price fluctuations. Market sentiment has shifted, with leading blue-chip stocks showing weaker performance. The focus remains on leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. The instability in global situations has heightened the importance of food security, making the demand in the agriculture and food supply chain more rigid. There is optimism regarding the sustainability of the economic upturn and upward elasticity due to supply-side structural optimization [11][12]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of January 24, Brent oil price decreased by 2.8% to $78.50 per barrel. On January 17, US commercial crude oil inventories were 411.7 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels to 245.9 million barrels, while distillate inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels to 128.9 million barrels [12][13]. Chemical Price Changes - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were for trichloromethane (up 10.0%), methionine (up 6.7%), and international urea (up 5.8%). The largest declines were seen in liquid chlorine (down 37.5%), niacinamide (down 13.5%), and succinic anhydride (down 7.3%). Trichloromethane prices surged due to increased downstream activity following the issuance of new R22 quotas, leading to a rapid decline in inventory and continuous price increases [13][14]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Core product MDI has seen recent profit improvements, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects set to launch. - Huamao Technology (603181, Buy): A leader in specialty polyether, has effectively responded to previous macro demand pressures and has re-entered a growth phase. - Jinhui Industrial (002597, Buy): A leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal changes at the bottom of its main product cycle. - Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated): A leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustained demand for phosphate rock [11][12].