计算机行业2025年投资策略：循AI商业化主线，把握结构性新机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next six months [210]. Core Insights - The report highlights three major trends in the AI sector: domestic companies focusing on AI computing power and ecosystem competition, overseas companies shifting towards model optimization on the inference side, and the increasing release of AI Agents driving application deployment [30][44][63]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies and macroeconomic conditions on the recovery of related sectors, particularly in the context of the "信创" (Xinchuang) initiative, which aims to enhance domestic technology capabilities [79][126]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Market Review - The computer industry index increased by 4.4% in 2024, underperforming the broader market index by approximately 10.3% [14]. - The top three gainers in the sector were 汇金科技 (+367.5%), 赢时胜 (+258.0%), and 荣科科技 (+234.2%) [14]. 2. Domestic and International Competition - Domestic major players like 字节, 阿里, and 腾讯 are significantly investing in AI computing power, while overseas firms are optimizing models for inference tasks [30][31]. - The report notes that the demand for ASIC chips is expected to rise due to their cost-effectiveness in inference tasks compared to traditional GPUs [58]. 3. Continuous Catalysts in the Sector - The report indicates that the Xinchuang initiative is gaining momentum, with increased efficiency in bidding processes and a clearer direction for technology adoption [79]. - The financial recovery of local governments, aided by a 10 trillion yuan debt relief plan, is expected to benefit companies in the Xinchuang sector [80]. 4. Policy and Industry Trends - The report discusses the issuance of long-term special bonds to support key strategic projects, including AI and low-altitude economy initiatives [126]. - It highlights the expected growth in the AI Agent market, projected to reach 852 billion yuan by 2028, driven by advancements in LLM algorithms [63]. 5. Key Companies - 海光信息 is noted for its strong performance in AI computing power, with significant product launches expected to enhance its market position [175]. - 神州数码 is recognized for its expanding AI server offerings and robust growth in its core business [180]. - 金山办公's WPS AI 2.0 is anticipated to drive revenue growth through enhanced user engagement and product offerings [186]. - 金蝶国际 is positioned to benefit from the accelerating digital transformation of enterprises, particularly in the ERP market [192]. - 同花顺 is expected to maintain stable growth due to its strong correlation with market activity and investor participation [198].