宏观专题：“真空期”的八大积极迹象

Policy Insights - The central economic work conference has led to significant fluctuations in major asset prices, with the stock market oscillating between bullish and bearish sentiments[5] - Local governments have set higher GDP, fixed asset investment, and retail sales targets for 2025 compared to actual values in 2024, indicating increased economic activity[16] Fiscal Developments - Broad fiscal spending growth was 2.7% in 2024, marking a 1.3 percentage point increase from previous values, with a projected deficit of around 4.5 trillion yuan for 2025[18] - As of January 25, 2025, the issuance of special bonds reached 198 billion yuan, significantly higher than 56.8 billion yuan in January 2024, although still below the average level since 2019[18][27] Commodity Market Trends - January's PPI is expected to improve to -1.9%, a 0.4 percentage point increase from December, driven by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions[36] - Domestic commodity prices have shown signs of recovery, with steel prices increasing slightly, indicating a potential stabilization in the market[32] Consumer Behavior - The 2025 Spring Festival saw a notable increase in consumer activity, with inbound tourism expected to grow by over 70% year-on-year, supported by visa policy changes[43] - The average travel duration during the Spring Festival increased to 4.8 days, with 43% of travelers opting for 5-6 day trips, reflecting a shift towards quality experiences[49] Real Estate Market - New home sales in key cities increased by 33% year-on-year in January 2025, with a notable rise in transaction volumes in cities like Suzhou, which saw a 137.27% increase[55] - Approximately 30 cities have reported a temporary stabilization in housing prices, with some cities like Laiyang and Huangshan experiencing significant rebounds of 8.98% and 6.99% respectively[56] Transportation Trends - The 2025 Spring Festival transportation volume is expected to exceed previous years, with significant increases in passenger numbers across all transport modes compared to 2024[61] - The Baidu migration index indicates a strong return of workers from major cities, suggesting increased consumer spending in lower-tier cities during the Spring Festival[75] Market Mechanisms - Continuous reforms in the capital market aim to establish a long-term stability mechanism, with policies encouraging the entry of long-term funds into the market[90] - The government is focusing on enhancing the internal stability of the capital market through various financial instruments and regulatory measures[91]