2024年1-12月工业企业盈利数据的背后：工业利润:“两新”发力量先行

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In December 2024, the profit growth of industrial enterprises turned positive, with a monthly increase of 11.0% compared to a decline of 7.3% in November[1] - For the entire year of 2024, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, totaling CNY 74,310.5 billion[1] - The operating revenue for 2024 increased by 2.1% year-on-year, reaching CNY 137.77 trillion, while operating costs grew by 2.5%[3] Group 2: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - The "Two New" policies significantly boosted the profit growth in December, with notable improvements in specialized and general equipment sectors, showing year-on-year profit growth of 18.4% and 1.8% respectively in Q4 2024[2] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 4.5% in 2024, outperforming the average industrial growth by 7.8 percentage points, contributing 0.8 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[6] - Consumer goods manufacturing saw a recovery, with profits increasing by 3.4% year-on-year in 2024, supported by policies promoting consumption[7] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Industrial profits are expected to gradually improve in 2025, with an estimated annual growth rate of 6.7%, driven by increasing effective demand and stabilizing industrial prices[8] - The inventory cycle is expected to remain flat into 2025, with a significant portion of industries showing high inventory levels, which may affect profit recovery[9] - Risks include insufficient economic recovery momentum and potential delays in policy implementation, which could hinder profit growth[10]