宏观研究专题报告：继强生产脉冲之后，PMI自然回落

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Trends - In January 2025, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1%, indicating a contraction after the expansion in Q4 2024[5] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to a natural pullback following a strong production pulse, not solely due to the Spring Festival[5] - The production index in January was 0.6 percentage points higher than the new orders index, marking the lowest level in nearly 10 months, suggesting an improvement in supply-demand balance[7] Group 2: Price Dynamics - The suppression of finished product prices has weakened, with the manufacturing purchase price index rising to 49.5% and the factory price index to 47.4% in January[14] - Since November 2024, both the purchase price index and factory price index have been in a contraction zone, contrasting with the strong production pulse in Q4 2024[14] - The proportion of manufacturing firms reporting tight funds decreased to 28.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from December 2024, indicating easing financial pressure[14] Group 3: Corporate Profit Trends - In December 2024, the year-on-year decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed to 3.3%, showing signs of recovery[18] - The improvement in profit margins is expected to support corporate profit growth moving forward, especially after the reduction in price suppression[18] - The anticipated economic growth pattern for 2025 is expected to be "low at both ends, high in the middle," with Q1 likely experiencing a natural pullback after the strong production pulse[18] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and policy implementation may not meet expectations, posing risks to economic stability[22]