CTG DUTY-FREE(601888) 国信证券·2025-01-28 01:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure due to short-term challenges in Hainan's duty-free business, but the recent winning of six city store bids is expected to drive medium-term growth [1][4] - The company reported a 16% decline in revenue for 2024, with expected revenue of 56.49 billion yuan and a 36% drop in net profit to 4.26 billion yuan [1][7] - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed a revenue decline of 19.35% compared to the previous quarter, with net profit down 77.20% [1][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a revenue of 56.49 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 16.36% decrease, and a net profit of 4.26 billion yuan, down 36.50% [1][7] - In Q4 2024, revenue is expected to be 13.47 billion yuan, a decline of 19.35%, while net profit is projected at 344 million yuan, down 77.20% [1][7] Market Dynamics - Hainan's duty-free sales are under pressure, with a reported sales figure of 30.94 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year, despite a 3% increase in passenger traffic [2][8] - The company has increased its market share in Hainan by 2 percentage points through product adjustments and brand diversification, although profit margins have been affected by rising operational costs [2][8] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from new city duty-free store policies, having won bids in six major cities, which could enhance its market presence [3][10] - The ongoing recovery of international passenger traffic is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth in airport duty-free stores, with significant increases reported in Beijing and Shanghai [2][9] Valuation and Profit Forecast - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 4.26 billion yuan, 4.96 billion yuan, and 6.15 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30, 26, and 21 [4][10] - The company's valuation is under pressure due to uncertainties in consumer trends and the competitive landscape in Hainan, but its leading position in the global duty-free market provides a strong foundation [4][10]