曲美家居：曲美点评

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qu Mei Home (603818) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for the company's profitability improvement in 2025 [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that Qu Mei Home is expected to achieve a significant reduction in losses for 2024, with a forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -168 million to -112 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease in losses of 44.8% to 63.2% [1]. - The company is experiencing operational improvements domestically, with a focus on product upgrades and organizational optimization, which are expected to drive profitability in 2025 [2]. - The overseas segment is showing signs of recovery, particularly with improved orders for Ekornes, and profitability is anticipated to stabilize as inventory is cleared and costs decrease [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to have total revenue of 3.696 billion yuan, a decline of 8.2% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -139 million yuan, a significant improvement from -304 million yuan in 2023 [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 31.8% in 2023 to 34.1% in 2024, with a further increase to 35.8% in 2025 [5]. - The report forecasts net profits of 1.6 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.1 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.5X and 5.9X [3]. Domestic Operations - Domestic revenue saw a nearly 20% decline in Q3 2024, primarily due to pressure on retail, although engineering segments showed growth [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its personnel structure and reducing costs, with management, sales, and R&D expenses decreasing significantly in Q3 2024 [2]. - The launch of new products and the establishment of flagship stores are part of the strategy to enhance brand image and drive sales [2]. Overseas Operations - In Q3 2024, Ekornes revenue decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, attributed to production limitations during the autumn holidays, but European markets showed recovery while North America continued to face challenges [2]. - The report anticipates that overseas revenue will turn positive in Q4 2024 as order improvements become evident and costs related to shipping and raw materials decline [2][3].