有色金属行业专题报告：过剩幅度收窄，25年锂价或震荡磨底

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the oversupply of lithium is narrowing, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate and stabilize at the bottom in 2025 [1] - The lithium industry is experiencing a peak in capital expenditure, with oversupply being the main theme [3][14] - Domestic demand for lithium is not pessimistic, driven by a large cycle of demand [3][53] - The price of lithium is expected to stabilize, with 2025 potentially seeing bottom fluctuations [3][66] Summary by Sections 1. Lithium Resources and Lithium Industry Chain - Lithium is an ideal battery material due to its low density, high specific capacity, and excellent electrochemical activity [4][6] - Global lithium resources are abundant, primarily found in salt lake forms, with a high reserve-to-production ratio [7][9] - China ranks second in lithium reserves globally, with significant breakthroughs in lithium mining discoveries [9] 2. Supply: Capital Expenditure Peak and Oversupply - The lithium supply is becoming more diversified, with a decrease in supply concentration [14][16] - High lithium prices have driven a new round of capital expenditure, with 2023 and 2024 expected to be peak periods for capital investment [17][18] - Domestic lithium salt production is increasing, with pricing power gradually shifting to China [23][24] 3. Demand: Core of the Large Cycle, Domestic Demand Not Pessimistic - The demand for lithium has transitioned from traditional industrial use to being driven by consumer electronics and now by new energy vehicles [49] - Domestic electric vehicle demand is expected to exceed expectations due to supportive consumption policies [56] - The report forecasts a 19% year-on-year increase in lithium carbonate demand for 2025, reaching 143 million tons [56] 4. Price: Fluctuations Narrowing, 2025 May See Bottom Oscillation - The report anticipates that the future price elasticity of lithium will be less than in previous cycles, with narrowing fluctuations expected [69] - The expected average price for lithium carbonate in 2025 is projected to be around 80,000 yuan per ton [69]