国内观察：2024年12月工业企业利润数据：利润增速继续修复

Group 1: Profit Trends - In December 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous value of -4.7%[1] - The profit growth rate has been improving monthly since September 2024, with December's year-on-year growth reaching 11.0%, the highest for the year[2] - The profit margin in December was 5.3%, showing a seasonal decline but a year-on-year recovery after four months of negative growth[2] Group 2: Revenue and Cost Analysis - Revenue growth in December increased from 0.5% to 4.2% year-on-year, indicating a continuing improvement trend[2] - The industrial added value in December rose by 6.2% year-on-year, contributing positively to revenue growth[2] - The cost rate has decreased, while the expense ratio has risen seasonally but remains below the average of the past five years[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - In 2024, the profit share of midstream raw materials and equipment manufacturing increased, while upstream mining profits decreased[2] - Chemical fiber manufacturing saw the highest profit growth at 33.6% year-on-year, driven by strong demand in the electric vehicle sector[2] - Downstream manufacturing, particularly in automotive, continued to experience negative profit growth, with a decline of 8% for the year[2] Group 4: Inventory and Policy Impact - Nominal inventory growth remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year, with actual inventory growth at 5.6%[2] - The fiscal policy's scale and implementation pace will significantly influence the inventory cycle in 2025[2] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy measures and demand recovery, as well as uncertainties related to tariffs[2]