国内观察：2025年1月PMI：短期扰动因素下PMI波动加大，趋势性企稳仍有待政策加力

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January 2025, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.1%, down from 50.1% in December 2024[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2%, compared to 52.2% in the previous month[2] - The January PMI decline is attributed to seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, with a larger drop than in previous years[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - The production index dropped to 49.8%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, down by 1.8 percentage points[2] - The expected activity index for production rose to 55.3%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points, indicating strong confidence among businesses post-holiday[2] - The main raw material purchase price index improved to 49.5%, up by 1.3 percentage points, although it remains below the growth line[2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The service sector PMI stood at 50.3%, remaining above the growth line despite a slight decline[2] - The construction sector experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable drop in January due to seasonal effects and year-end construction rush[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI faced pressure from a high base in December 2024, which saw an unusual increase of 2.2 percentage points[2]