大类资产配置月报第43期：2025年2月：特朗普就职后风险仍存，关注国内外政策走向

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that risks remain after Trump's inauguration, with a focus on domestic and international policy directions [2][19][20] - The report suggests a cautious investment strategy, with a preference for U.S. stocks and expectations for domestic commodity prices to be boosted [4][45] - The analysis highlights that the economic fundamentals show marginal changes, with attention on the upcoming Spring Festival consumption data [14][18] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming "Two Sessions" and the potential for macro policy expectations to improve market sentiment [29][104] - It notes that the financial sector is expected to benefit from a potential loosening of domestic liquidity post-holiday [4][29] - The analysis indicates that the consumer sector is under pressure, with high-frequency data showing no significant improvement in internal consumption dynamics [4][18] Group 3 - The report discusses the anticipated stability in bond yields, with short-term interest rates expected to remain unchanged in the near term [53][58] - It highlights that the U.S. Treasury yields are likely to experience upward pressure, particularly on long-term bonds, due to economic resilience [70][71] - The analysis suggests that the market is awaiting new policy signals from the Federal Reserve, with a focus on the implications for interest rates [70][72] Group 4 - The report indicates that commodity prices are under pressure due to concerns over Trump's potential trade policies and the Fed's hawkish stance [86][91] - It notes that while oil prices may remain under pressure, there is a medium to long-term bullish outlook for gold due to geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [100][101] - The analysis suggests that domestic commodities may see price support from proactive local government policies and infrastructure investments [104][106] Group 5 - The report highlights the potential for the U.S. dollar to weaken following Trump's relatively moderate inauguration speech [131] - It discusses the implications of the U.S.-China monetary policy divergence on the Chinese yuan, with expectations for a rebound before any potential rate cuts [135][136] - The analysis indicates that the trade balance and foreign exchange reserves are under scrutiny, with recent trends showing continued outflows [136][137]