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携程集团-S:25Q1点评:利润超预期,国际业务维持亮眼增长-20250523
华安证券· 2025-05-23 10:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% year-on-year), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% year-on-year) [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, driven by favorable visa-free policies, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% year-on-year and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [4][5] - The company expects revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: accommodation booking revenue of 5.5 billion (up 23% year-on-year), transportation ticketing revenue of 5.4 billion (up 8% year-on-year), and other business revenue of 1.4 billion (up 33% year-on-year) [4] - The company anticipates adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 16%, and 14% [7][10] - The total market capitalization is 34.79 billion HKD [9]
携程集团-S(09961):25Q1点评:利润超预期,国际业务维持亮眼增长
华安证券· 2025-05-23 10:03
Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% YoY), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% YoY), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% YoY and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, driven by strategic investments and favorable visa policies [4][5] - The company expects revenues of 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for the same years [7][10] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Overall revenue reached 13.8 billion (YoY +16%), slightly above consensus estimates by 0.22% - Operating profit was 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), exceeding consensus by 7.34% - Adjusted net profit was 4.2 billion (YoY +3%), surpassing consensus by 8.99% [4] Business Segment Performance - Accommodation booking revenue was 5.5 billion (YoY +23%), above consensus by 1.39% - Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion (YoY +8%), slightly above consensus by 0.20% - Vacation business revenue was 0.9 billion (YoY +7%), below consensus by 5.90% - Business travel management revenue was 0.6 billion (YoY +12%), above consensus by 4.36% - Other business revenue was 1.4 billion (YoY +33%), slightly below consensus by 0.96% [4] International Business Growth - The overseas OTA platform's booking volume increased by 60% YoY, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, largely due to strategic positioning and visa policy benefits - Inbound tourist numbers surged by 40.2% YoY, with 75% of visitors from visa-free countries, particularly from South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, where hotel orders increased by over 240% [4][5] Future Revenue and Profit Projections - Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with YoY growth rates of +15%, +12%, and +12% - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion, with YoY growth rates of +3%, +16%, and +14% [7][10]
长端信用为何强势?
华安证券· 2025-05-23 05:18
[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 长端信用为何强势? 报告日期: 2025-05-23 [首席Table_Author] 分析师:颜子琦 执业证书号:S0010522030002 电话:13127532070 邮箱:yanzq@hazq.com 分析师:杨佩霖 执业证书号:S0010523070002 电话:17861391391 邮箱:yangpl@hazq.com 主要观点: ⚫[Table_Summary] 供需失衡推动长端强势,后续怎么看? ⚫ 风险提示: 1)信用债违约风险;2)宏观环境超预期。 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 2 / 6 证券研究报告 5 月以来,信用债整体表现较好,长端信用尤其表现强势。相较于上月末, 截至 5 月 22 日,本月信用债收益率与信用利差双双下行,其中长短端走势 有所分化,以城投债为例,1 年期各隐含评级城投债收益率普遍下行 12 至 13bp,其中来自利差压缩的贡献约为 7 至 8bp,另有约 5bp 来自于无风险 利率的下行,而在 5年期方面则相反,收益率虽同样整体下行,但下行幅度 均不及利差压缩幅度,即长端信用在同期限利率出现 ...
网易-S:游戏业务稳健发力,内容多元化布局-20250522
华安证券· 2025-05-22 05:23
[Table_StockNameRptType] 网易-S(09999) 港股公司点评 游戏业务稳健发力,内容多元化布局 [Table_Rank] 投资评级:买入(维持) 报告日期: 2025-05-22 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价(港元) | 190.50 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低(港元)195.2/116.0 | | | 总股本(百万股) | 3,166 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 3,166 | | 流通股比例(%) | 100.00 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 6,031 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 6,031 | [公司价格与恒生指数走势比较 Table_Chart] -31% -14% 4% 22% 39% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 网易-S 恒生指数 主要观点: ⚫[Table_Summary] 1Q25 业绩: 25Q1,公司实现收入 288.3 亿元(yoy+7.4%,qoq+7.8%)。公 司一季度实现毛利 184.8 亿元(yoy+8.6%),毛利率为 64.1%,同比 增加 0.7pct;实现调整后净利润 ...
哔哩哔哩-W:《三谋》稳健运营,利润侧持续改善-20250522
华安证券· 2025-05-22 05:23
Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.003 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 24%. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 362 million yuan, up 179% year-over-year, indicating improved operational conditions [6] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in Q2 due to its anniversary season, with major updates and new heroes planned [7] - The company reported a daily active user (DAU) of 107 million, a year-over-year increase of 4.2%, and a monthly active user (MAU) of 370 million, indicating a stable growth in core users [8] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.04 billion, 33.07 billion, and 36.26 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 1.82 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.92 billion yuan [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 26.832 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 19.1%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be -39 million yuan, showing a significant recovery in subsequent years [11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.09 yuan in 2024 to 9.18 yuan in 2027 [12] - The gross margin is expected to increase from 32.7% in 2024 to 39.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [13]
网易-S(09999):游戏业务稳健发力,内容多元化布局
华安证券· 2025-05-22 05:05
[Table_StockNameRptType] 网易-S(09999) [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.网易 24Q4 业绩点评:《漫威争锋》 推动端游增长,游戏多元化成长 2025-02-26 港股公司点评 游戏业务稳健发力,内容多元化布局 [Table_Rank] 投资评级:买入(维持) 报告日期: 2025-05-22 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价(港元) | 190.50 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低(港元)195.2/116.0 | | | 总股本(百万股) | 3,166 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 3,166 | | 流通股比例(%) | 100.00 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 6,031 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 6,031 | [公司价格与恒生指数走势比较 Table_Chart] -31% -14% 4% 22% 39% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 网易-S 恒生指数 [Table_Author] 分析师:金荣 执业证书号:S0010521080002 邮箱:jinrong@hazq.c ...
哔哩哔哩-W(09626):《三谋》稳健运营,利润侧持续改善
华安证券· 2025-05-22 05:05
Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.003 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24%. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 362 million yuan, up 179% year-on-year, indicating improved operational conditions [6] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in Q2 due to its anniversary season, with major updates and new heroes planned [7] - The company reported a daily active user (DAU) of 107 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a monthly active user (MAU) of 370 million, indicating a stable growth in core users [8] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.04 billion, 33.07 billion, and 36.26 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 1.82 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.92 billion yuan [9] Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 26.832 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be -39 million yuan, showing a significant recovery in subsequent years [11] - The company is expected to achieve an EPS (NON-GAAP) of -0.09 in 2024, improving to 4.27 in 2025, 6.59 in 2026, and 9.18 in 2027 [13] - The gross margin is projected to increase from 32.7% in 2024 to 39.1% in 2027, indicating improving profitability [13]
“学海拾珠”系列之二百三十六:基于层级动量的投资组合构建
华安证券· 2025-05-21 14:51
[Table_StockNameRptType] 金融工程 五 专题报告 基于层级动量的投资组合构建 ——"学海拾珠"系列之二百三十六 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期:2025-05-21 [Table_Author] 分析师:严佳炜 执业证书号:S0010520070001 邮箱:yanjw@hazq.com 分析师:钱静闲 执业证书号:S0010522090002 邮箱:qianjx@hazq.com 主要观点: [Table_Summary] 本篇是"学海拾珠"系列第二百三十六篇,文献提出了一种将股票 价格动量与高维资产组合的层级聚类(HC)相结合的投资组合构建方 法,改善了 Markowitz 均值-方差(MV)投资组合权重不稳定和配置过 于集中的问题。回到国内市场,该方法在股票组合构建、ETF 组合构 建、资产组合构建等多个领域都存在可施行的空间。 ⚫ 层级动量策略 7.《分解动量:被遗忘的成分 HTP— 由资产收益间的 pearson 相关系数推导出距离函数。使用自下而上 递归的方法,合并距离更近的资产进行聚类,结果是一个树状图。在树 状图的某个高度 h 处进行水平切割,将树分割成 n ...
4月交易所及银行间托管数据点评:债市机构已“全面上车”
华安证券· 2025-05-21 14:05
——4 月交易所及银行间托管数据点评 报告日期: 2025-5-21 [Table_Author] 首席分析师:颜子琦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 点评报告 债市机构已"全面上车" 上一次发生机构全面增配的时间点为 2024 年 1 月。回顾历史数据,我们 发现托管量的变化中广义基金与商业银行通常走势相反,债市表现偏强时 通常广义基金增持、商业银行减持,反之亦然,而机构全面增配可能说明 一方面其在趋势性行情下担心踏空风险;另一方面,4 月债券供给量实际 并不多,也反映了"先上车"的持券意愿。 5 月债市出现"小碎步"回调,波动已经明显降低,多数机构持券观望。 5 月初 10 年国债在中美联合声明后,由 1.63%逐步回调至 1.70%,上行 7bp,但该过程历经约 20 天,波动已经较此前(2-3 月)明显降低,说明 多数机构的持券意愿依然较强,债市多头并未出现瓦解趋势,从边际表现 上看二级高频交易数据也暂未出现明显抛压。 展望后市,在债市回调背景下不乏止盈资金,但最近一份托管数据显示目 前机构持仓意愿相对较强,目前机构行为依然对债市偏有利,对应行情或 是上有顶、下有底的窄幅震荡 ...
工业富联(601138):云计算全年收入占比首次过半,Q1维持强劲势头
华安证券· 2025-05-21 11:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 160.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.2 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year [5]. - The cloud computing business has shown strong momentum, with revenue growth exceeding 50% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by AI and general server sales [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI, with projected revenues of 758.7 billion yuan, 955.8 billion yuan, and 1,195.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenues of 609.1 billion yuan, a 28% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 23.2 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year [5]. - The projected financials for 2025 to 2027 include revenues of 758.7 billion yuan, 955.8 billion yuan, and 1,195.1 billion yuan, with net profits of 29.2 billion yuan, 35.5 billion yuan, and 45.1 billion yuan respectively [9]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 7.3% in 2024 to 6.3% by 2027, while ROE is projected to improve from 15.2% to 17.3% over the same period [9].