[Table_StockNameRptType] 医药生物 行业专题 ADC 研发热情高涨，CDMO 需求高景气 行业评级： 增持 报告日期： 2025-12-31 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 -21% -1% 19% 39% 12/31 03/31 06/30 09/30 12/31 医药生物 沪深300 分析师：谭国超 执业证书号：S0010521120002 邮箱：tangc@hazq.com 分析师：杨馥瑗 执业证书号：S0010524080001 邮箱：yangfuyuan@hazq.com 相关报告 1.【华安医药】2026 年医药行业投资 策略报告：创新、商业化和国际化 2025-12-17 2.【华安医药】医疗器械专题之脑机 接口：2025 脑机接口行业发展更新 2025-10-14 主要观点： ⚫ ADC 现已成为最有前景且发展最快的治疗方式之一 ADC 药物兼具抗体药物的精准靶向特性和小分子细胞毒性药物的强杀 伤力。传统化疗存在高脱靶毒性，并可能导致感染等风险增加。相较之 下，ADC 结合了抗体疗法、化疗和小分子抑制剂疗法的优势，具有独特 的靶向能力，显示出更好的临床试验结果。近年来 ...

证券研究报告 2025年12月30日 攻守兼备，布局基本面拐点 ——轻工制造2026年度策略 分析师：徐 偲 SAC执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 SAC执业证书号：S0010524040004 邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com 目录 1 造纸：拐点将至，格局为首要逻辑 2 包装：行业整合加速，二片罐盈利有望改善 3 烟草：长牛赛道，逐步配置 4 家居：美国开启降息，关注家居出口标的 ➢ 风险提示：全球宏观经济形势变化风险，全球需求变化的风险，行业竞争加剧的风险，原材料价格波动的风险，汇 率波动的风险。 2 1.1造纸行业正处于被动去库存阶段 ➢ 库存周期本质上是供需平衡变化的结果，从而反映行业的市场环境和景气度。库存周期可以根据量价关系划分为四个阶 段：被动补库存（价格先于库存下跌）→主动去库存（库存和价格同时下降）→被动去库存（价格先于库存上升）→主 动补库存（库存和价格同时上升）。按照库存周期的演绎逻辑，我们判断25Q3造纸行业已进入被动去库存阶段，主要特 征为，经济开启回暖，需求明显复苏，但生产端存在一定滞后，原材料库存持平或者 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the price of photovoltaic silicon wafers, indicating a positive trend in the solar energy sector. Additionally, major companies such as Mitsui Chemicals are consolidating their ethylene businesses, which may enhance operational efficiencies [1][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 7th in overall performance for the week of December 22-26, 2025, with a gain of 4.23%. This performance outpaced the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.35 percentage points [3][20]. Key Industry Trends - The report notes a continued divergence in the chemical industry’s prosperity, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4][5]. Synthetic Biology - The report emphasizes the arrival of a pivotal moment for synthetic biology, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies are expected to face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that leverage green energy and scale advantages are likely to thrive [5]. Refrigerants - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is expected to lead to a high-growth cycle. The supply of second-generation refrigerants is being reduced, while demand remains stable due to market expansions in heat pumps and cold chains [6]. Electronic Specialty Gases - The electronic specialty gas market is characterized by high technical barriers and value addition. The domestic market is facing a mismatch between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements [7][8]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is highlighted, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is expected to enhance production efficiency and align with global carbon neutrality goals [8]. COC Polymers - The report discusses the accelerated industrialization of COC/COP materials in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the increasing demand from downstream industries [9]. Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rebound as major producers reduce output, alleviating inventory pressures. The report suggests that the market is entering a destocking phase, which could lead to price stabilization [10]. MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with major players controlling over 90% of global capacity. Despite current price pressures, the long-term outlook remains positive as demand recovers [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that commercial aerospace and 6G are key areas for industrial layout, driven by policy and technology [3][4] - A recent policy from Shanghai supports the construction of a world-class industrial cluster focusing on commercial aerospace and 6G, emphasizing application-based research and key technology breakthroughs [12][13] - The third Commercial Aerospace Development Conference indicated that the industry has entered a new phase of scale and commercialization, with a projected market size to achieve a leap forward [13] - The establishment of a 2 billion yuan fund for commercial aerospace and a talent training program to supply 1,000 skilled workers annually over the next 3-5 years were also announced [13][4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Perspective - The report discusses the Shanghai policy aimed at supporting the G60 Science and Technology Corridor, focusing on commercial aerospace and 6G industries [12] - It emphasizes the need for collaboration among enterprises, academic institutions, and research organizations to drive innovation and technology development [12] 2. Market Performance Review - The computer industry index increased by 2.20% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.32 percentage points [15] - Year-to-date, the computer industry index has risen by 16.89%, ranking 14th among 31 industry indices [15][16] 3. Technology Software Industry News - The report covers various sectors including computing power, low-altitude economy, automotive intelligence, cybersecurity, data elements, and artificial intelligence, highlighting significant developments in each area [23][24][25][26][27][29][30] - For instance, the computing power sector in Yangzhou has reached a scale of 34,000 P, leading the province [23] - The automotive sector is seeing advancements in intelligent driving systems, with companies like Huawei and Audi launching new technologies [26] 4. Company Dynamics - The report mentions several companies involved in stock buybacks and incentive plans, indicating active corporate governance and management strategies [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The chemical sector is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4][5] - The recent suspension of anti-dumping duties on titanium dioxide by India is anticipated to allow Chinese companies to regain market share lost to competitors during the duty period [35] - The closure of four factories by Westlake Group in the U.S. is a strategic move to enhance profitability in high-performance and basic materials [35] Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 5th in overall performance for the week of December 15-19, 2025, with a gain of 2.58%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.55 percentage points [3][20] - The polyurethane sub-sector showed the highest increase at 9.04%, while non-metallic materials III experienced a decline of 2.29% [21] Specific Industry Trends - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to see significant growth due to energy structure adjustments [5] - The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle as supply constraints tighten and demand remains stable [6] - The electronic specialty gases market presents substantial opportunities for domestic companies due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [7][8] - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter feedstocks like ethane and propane [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization, driven by local demand and supply chain security concerns [9] - Potash prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a tightening supply situation [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure anticipated as demand recovers [11]

全球科技（计算机） [Table_IndNameRptType] 行业周报 智谱、MiniMax 通过港交所聆讯，冲刺大模型第一股 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-12-22 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 沪深300 计算机（申万） [分析师： Table_Author] 金荣 执业证书号： S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com 分析师：来祚豪 执业证书号： S0010524100001 邮箱：laizh@hazq.com ⚫[Table_Summary] T_Summary] 12 月 17 日，智谱与 MiniMax 均通过港交所上市聆讯 智谱通过港交所上市聆讯，标志港股首次迎来一家以"基座模 型"为核心的上市公司，而 MiniMax 聚焦多模态模型领域，这表明 以基座模型和多模态模型为主要赛道的 AI 大模型公司，正式进入 港股 IPO 冲刺阶段，预计 2026 年初登陆资本市场。产品方面，智 谱积极推出开源基座模型 GLM-4.5 和 GLM-4 ...

周度报告 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 策略研究 1 月市场和行业有何日历效应？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-12-21 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略周报《换手率对当下成长行情 节奏如何指示？》2025-12-14 2.年度策略《破晓：从预期到盈利的切 换—2026 年 A 股投资策略》2025-12- 08 3.策略月报《酝酿新机—2025 年 12 月 A 股市场研判及配置机会》2025-11-30 4.策略周报《市场见底前银行如何博 弈？》2025-11-23 主要观点 [Table_Sum ...

Group 1: Generative AI and Computing Power - The landscape of generative AI is shifting from a "single supplier" model to a "multi-architecture + multiple leading players" competition, with NVIDIA, AMD, Google, and Amazon leading the charge in AI chip development [22][23] - The AI server interconnect is evolving from board-level PCIe and copper cabling to rack-level optical interconnects and reconfigurable network architectures, enhancing data transmission capabilities [24][25] - The storage sector is entering a "super cycle" driven by HBM, GDDR, DRAM, NAND, and CXL technologies, as AI models demand increased data capacity and bandwidth [27][28][31] Group 2: AI Applications and Industry Impact - Video generation models have reached a "production-grade" stage, with companies like Google and Kuaishou leading the way in integrating AI into content creation workflows [32][33] - The advertising, gaming, and automation sectors are undergoing significant transformations due to AI, with enhanced precision in ad targeting and reduced production costs in gaming [9][10] - The publishing industry is characterized by stable demand for educational materials and low PE ratios, providing a safety net for investors [12] Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - The Nasdaq Composite Index experienced a notable recovery in the second half of 2025, driven by advancements in AI and generative models, which restored investor confidence [35][38] - The MAG 7 stocks showed significant performance differentiation, with Google and NVIDIA outperforming the market, while other major players like Tesla and Microsoft lagged behind [38]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes two main investment themes for the chemical industry: anti-involution policies and domestic substitution, which are expected to drive recovery and growth in the sector [4][5][6] Anti-Involution and Cycle Recovery - The report suggests that the chemical industry is at a turning point, with anti-involution measures leading to a recovery in the cycle. Key areas include the peak of new capacity in organic silicon, the end of PTA capacity expansion, and a rebound in prices for certain chemicals due to supply chain disruptions [4][5] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has decreased significantly, dropping to 3865 points by November 30, 2025, down 16.37% from early 2024 and 10.71% from the beginning of 2025 [4][20] Domestic Substitution as a Growth Driver - Domestic substitution is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant support from national policies for bio-based materials and advancements in technology leading to a more robust domestic supply chain [4][6] - The report identifies several companies positioned to benefit from these trends, including KaiSai Bio and RuiFeng New Materials, which are making strides in bio-based materials and lubricant additives, respectively [5][6] Market Dynamics and Price Recovery - The report notes that while the chemical market is experiencing a downturn, certain segments are expected to see price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced capacity expansion [4][22] - Specific chemical products have shown varied price movements, with some experiencing significant declines while others are stabilizing or recovering [22] Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which is anticipated to support the chemical industry. The report mentions that the real estate market is stabilizing, and automotive production has increased, indicating a potential uptick in demand for chemical products [25][33] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry is slowing, with a notable decline in new projects. The report indicates that the total construction in progress for the chemical sector was 327.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 17.64% year-on-year [34][39] Inventory and Consumption Trends - High inventory levels in the chemical sector are being addressed as consumer demand begins to recover. The report suggests that the inventory-to-revenue ratio for the basic chemical industry was 0.62 in Q3 2025, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [41][42] Profitability and Financial Performance - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for the chemical industry, with gross margins and return on equity (ROE) showing improvement in Q3 2025 compared to previous periods [56][60] - Specific sub-sectors, such as agrochemicals and fluorochemicals, have demonstrated significant profit growth, with some exceeding 100% year-on-year increases [55][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].