证券研究报告 2026年1月6日 下一任美联储主席即将敲定，宽松预期下降 — 大 类 资 产 配 置 月 报 第 5 4 期 ： 2 0 2 6 年 1 月 分析师：郑小霞 SAC执业证书号：S0010520080007 联系方式：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 SAC执业证书号：S0010523070001 联系方式：zhangyz@hazq.com 1 核心结论：下一任美联储主席降低降息预期，年初国内政策预期改善 | 大类 | 项目 | | | 本期：2025-12-31至2026-1-30 | 上期：2025-11-28至2025-12-31 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 投资建议 | 较上期变化 | 核心观点与逻辑支撑 | 指数变动 | 涨跌 | | 股指 | 上证指数 创业板指 | 震荡上行 震荡上行 | ↑ | 宏观政策接续发力，建筑业PMI大幅改善指向投资止跌回稳 | 3888.6-->3968.84 3052.59-->3203.17 | 2.06% 4.93% | | | | | | 值得期待，降 ...

- Theoretical new stock yield for Class A accounts with a scale of 2 billion is 3.80%[2][10] - Theoretical new stock yield for Class B accounts with a scale of 2 billion is 2.88%[2][10] - Theoretical new stock yield for Class A accounts with a scale of 10 billion is 1.74%[2][10] - Theoretical new stock yield for Class B accounts with a scale of 10 billion is 1.03%[2][10] - The average first-day increase for STAR Market stocks is 258.09%[2][20] - The average first-day increase for ChiNext stocks is 231.27%[2][20] - The number of valid quotation accounts for the latest STAR Market new stock is 4687 for Class A and 2065 for Class B[2][26] - The number of valid quotation accounts for the latest ChiNext new stock is approximately 3879 for Class A and 2610 for Class B[2][26] - The number of valid quotation accounts for the latest Shanghai Main Board new stock is 5200 for Class A and 2944 for Class B[2][26] - The number of valid quotation accounts for the latest Shenzhen Main Board new stock is 4683 for Class A and 2918 for Class B[2][26] - The highest first-day increase among newly listed stocks in the past month is 600.07% for Muxi Shares-U[37] - The highest fundraising amount among newly listed stocks in the past month is 80 billion for Moore Threads-U[37] - The highest full subscription yield among newly listed stocks in the past month is 671.65 thousand yuan for Moore Threads-U[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Muxi Shares-U is 343.75 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Angrui Micro-UW is 42.24 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for China Uranium Industry is 36.49 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Baiao Saitu is 14.67 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Youxun Shares is 24.68 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Tiansu Measurement is 5.54 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Nabai Chuan is 7.86 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Xihua Technology is 4.51 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for Jianxin Superconducting is 12.53 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for C Shuangxin is 12.56 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for C Yufan is 2.35 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for C Qiangyi is 40.15 thousand yuan[41][43] - The full subscription yield for C Xinguangyi is 9.93 thousand yuan[41][43] - The monthly offline new stock yield for Class A accounts with a scale of 2 billion in December 2025 is 195.55 thousand yuan[48][49] - The monthly offline new stock yield for Class B accounts with a scale of 2 billion in December 2025 is 94.99 thousand yuan[53][54] - The cumulative offline new stock yield for Class A accounts with a scale of 2 billion in 2025 is 3.80%[48][49] - The cumulative offline new stock yield for Class B accounts with a scale of 2 billion in 2025 is 2.88%[53][54]

[Table_StockNameRptType] 策略研究 月度报告 春风送暖 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2026-1-4 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱： zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略季报《万境皆含春意—2026 年 一季度 A 股市场研判及配置机会》 2025-12-28 2.策略周报《1 月市场和行业有何日历 效应？》2025-12-21 4.策略周报《换手率对当下成长行情 节奏如何指示？》2025-12-14 5.年度策略《破晓：从预期到盈利的切 换—2026 年 A 股投资策略》2025-12- ...

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[Table_StockNameRptType] 医药生物 行业专题 ADC 研发热情高涨，CDMO 需求高景气 行业评级： 增持 报告日期： 2025-12-31 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 -21% -1% 19% 39% 12/31 03/31 06/30 09/30 12/31 医药生物 沪深300 分析师：谭国超 执业证书号：S0010521120002 邮箱：tangc@hazq.com 分析师：杨馥瑗 执业证书号：S0010524080001 邮箱：yangfuyuan@hazq.com 相关报告 1.【华安医药】2026 年医药行业投资 策略报告：创新、商业化和国际化 2025-12-17 2.【华安医药】医疗器械专题之脑机 接口：2025 脑机接口行业发展更新 2025-10-14 主要观点： ⚫ ADC 现已成为最有前景且发展最快的治疗方式之一 ADC 药物兼具抗体药物的精准靶向特性和小分子细胞毒性药物的强杀 伤力。传统化疗存在高脱靶毒性，并可能导致感染等风险增加。相较之 下，ADC 结合了抗体疗法、化疗和小分子抑制剂疗法的优势，具有独特 的靶向能力，显示出更好的临床试验结果。近年来 ...

证券研究报告 2025年12月30日 攻守兼备，布局基本面拐点 ——轻工制造2026年度策略 分析师：徐 偲 SAC执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 SAC执业证书号：S0010524040004 邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com 目录 1 造纸：拐点将至，格局为首要逻辑 2 包装：行业整合加速，二片罐盈利有望改善 3 烟草：长牛赛道，逐步配置 4 家居：美国开启降息，关注家居出口标的 ➢ 风险提示：全球宏观经济形势变化风险，全球需求变化的风险，行业竞争加剧的风险，原材料价格波动的风险，汇 率波动的风险。 2 1.1造纸行业正处于被动去库存阶段 ➢ 库存周期本质上是供需平衡变化的结果，从而反映行业的市场环境和景气度。库存周期可以根据量价关系划分为四个阶 段：被动补库存（价格先于库存下跌）→主动去库存（库存和价格同时下降）→被动去库存（价格先于库存上升）→主 动补库存（库存和价格同时上升）。按照库存周期的演绎逻辑，我们判断25Q3造纸行业已进入被动去库存阶段，主要特 征为，经济开启回暖，需求明显复苏，但生产端存在一定滞后，原材料库存持平或者 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the price of photovoltaic silicon wafers, indicating a positive trend in the solar energy sector. Additionally, major companies such as Mitsui Chemicals are consolidating their ethylene businesses, which may enhance operational efficiencies [1][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 7th in overall performance for the week of December 22-26, 2025, with a gain of 4.23%. This performance outpaced the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.35 percentage points [3][20]. Key Industry Trends - The report notes a continued divergence in the chemical industry’s prosperity, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4][5]. Synthetic Biology - The report emphasizes the arrival of a pivotal moment for synthetic biology, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies are expected to face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that leverage green energy and scale advantages are likely to thrive [5]. Refrigerants - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is expected to lead to a high-growth cycle. The supply of second-generation refrigerants is being reduced, while demand remains stable due to market expansions in heat pumps and cold chains [6]. Electronic Specialty Gases - The electronic specialty gas market is characterized by high technical barriers and value addition. The domestic market is facing a mismatch between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements [7][8]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is highlighted, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is expected to enhance production efficiency and align with global carbon neutrality goals [8]. COC Polymers - The report discusses the accelerated industrialization of COC/COP materials in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the increasing demand from downstream industries [9]. Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rebound as major producers reduce output, alleviating inventory pressures. The report suggests that the market is entering a destocking phase, which could lead to price stabilization [10]. MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with major players controlling over 90% of global capacity. Despite current price pressures, the long-term outlook remains positive as demand recovers [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that commercial aerospace and 6G are key areas for industrial layout, driven by policy and technology [3][4] - A recent policy from Shanghai supports the construction of a world-class industrial cluster focusing on commercial aerospace and 6G, emphasizing application-based research and key technology breakthroughs [12][13] - The third Commercial Aerospace Development Conference indicated that the industry has entered a new phase of scale and commercialization, with a projected market size to achieve a leap forward [13] - The establishment of a 2 billion yuan fund for commercial aerospace and a talent training program to supply 1,000 skilled workers annually over the next 3-5 years were also announced [13][4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Perspective - The report discusses the Shanghai policy aimed at supporting the G60 Science and Technology Corridor, focusing on commercial aerospace and 6G industries [12] - It emphasizes the need for collaboration among enterprises, academic institutions, and research organizations to drive innovation and technology development [12] 2. Market Performance Review - The computer industry index increased by 2.20% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.32 percentage points [15] - Year-to-date, the computer industry index has risen by 16.89%, ranking 14th among 31 industry indices [15][16] 3. Technology Software Industry News - The report covers various sectors including computing power, low-altitude economy, automotive intelligence, cybersecurity, data elements, and artificial intelligence, highlighting significant developments in each area [23][24][25][26][27][29][30] - For instance, the computing power sector in Yangzhou has reached a scale of 34,000 P, leading the province [23] - The automotive sector is seeing advancements in intelligent driving systems, with companies like Huawei and Audi launching new technologies [26] 4. Company Dynamics - The report mentions several companies involved in stock buybacks and incentive plans, indicating active corporate governance and management strategies [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The chemical sector is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4][5] - The recent suspension of anti-dumping duties on titanium dioxide by India is anticipated to allow Chinese companies to regain market share lost to competitors during the duty period [35] - The closure of four factories by Westlake Group in the U.S. is a strategic move to enhance profitability in high-performance and basic materials [35] Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 5th in overall performance for the week of December 15-19, 2025, with a gain of 2.58%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.55 percentage points [3][20] - The polyurethane sub-sector showed the highest increase at 9.04%, while non-metallic materials III experienced a decline of 2.29% [21] Specific Industry Trends - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to see significant growth due to energy structure adjustments [5] - The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle as supply constraints tighten and demand remains stable [6] - The electronic specialty gases market presents substantial opportunities for domestic companies due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [7][8] - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter feedstocks like ethane and propane [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization, driven by local demand and supply chain security concerns [9] - Potash prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a tightening supply situation [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure anticipated as demand recovers [11]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Overweight [1] Core Insights - On December 17, Zhiyu and MiniMax both passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing, marking the first listing of a company focused on "foundation models" in Hong Kong. MiniMax focuses on multimodal models, indicating that AI large model companies are officially entering the IPO sprint phase in Hong Kong, expected to debut in early 2026 [3][11] - Zhiyu is actively launching open-source foundation models GLM-4.5 and GLM-4.6, with strong AI coding capabilities allowing integration with top programming tools and tech companies in the U.S. The CEO of Zhiyu stated that the company's software tools and model business (GLM coding plan) have an ARR exceeding 100 million yuan (approximately 14 million USD), with expected revenue growth of 100% in 2025 [3][11] - MiniMax has developed several multimodal products and has over 30,000 enterprise clients and developers on its open platform. The company’s commercialization strategy includes both B-end open platform and in-product advertising mechanisms [3][11][12] - The report highlights significant investments from major players like Hillhouse Capital, Meituan, Tencent, and Alibaba in Zhiyu and MiniMax, with Zhiyu's latest valuation reaching 40 billion yuan and MiniMax's valuation at 40 billion USD (approximately 300 billion yuan) [4][12] - The report suggests that the upcoming Hong Kong listings will shift the narrative of AI large model companies from "telling technical stories" to "realizing commercial value," providing a basis for future financing and valuation of large model enterprises [4][12] Market Performance Review - The computer industry index fell by 1.48%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.50 percentage points and outperforming the ChiNext Index by 0.78 percentage points. Year-to-date, the computer industry index has risen by 13.45% [14][17] - Among the 31 industry indices, the computer industry index ranked 22nd this week, leading the TMT sectors (electronics, communication, computer, media) [14][17] Company Dynamics - Zhiyu has completed 15 rounds of financing, with a latest valuation of 40 billion yuan, while MiniMax's valuation reached 40 billion USD after a 300 million USD C-round financing [4][12] - The report recommends focusing on AI hardware and application targets, mentioning related companies such as Cambricon, Inspur, Yonyou Network, and Kingsoft Office [4][12]