[Table_StockNameRptType] 金融工程 ⚫ 研究方法 专题报告 主动基金买入股票的超额收益时序曲线 ——"学海拾珠"系列之二百六十八 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期：2026-03-12 [Table_Author] 分析师：严佳炜 执业证书号：S0010520070001 邮箱：yanjw@hazq.com 分析师：钱静闲 执业证书号：S0010522090002 邮箱：qianjx@hazq.com 主要观点： [Table_Summary] 本篇是"学海拾珠"系列第二百六十八篇，文献通过构建美国主动 型股票基金所买入股票的超额收益时序曲线，揭示了基金投资信号所能 创造超额收益的周期与幅度。这有助于帮助投资者更好地理解基金经理 如何创造收益。过往多数研究只考察特定时间窗口（如季度或年度）内 的超额收益，未能揭示超额收益随时间累积和消退的模式。 1、超额收益曲线的定义与构建：定义为股票建仓后，其相对于某个 基准的累积超额收益指数随时间演变的轨迹。主要追踪建仓后 36 个月。 2、建仓的识别规则：当一只股票在某月出现在基金持仓中，而前月 未出现，且随后两个月持续持有，则被识别为一 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.387 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.56%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 372 million yuan, up 19.20% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 298 million yuan, an increase of 8.33% [3][4] - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 990 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 34.79%, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 86.17% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is accelerating its merger and acquisition strategy to expand overseas channels, with overseas revenue reaching approximately 299 million yuan in 2025, a staggering growth of 405.05% year-on-year [5] - A strategic partnership with Philips has been established, granting the company brand authorization for seven product categories, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth starting in the second half of 2026 [6] Financial Performance Summary - The company expects revenues for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 4.132 billion yuan, 5.132 billion yuan, and 6.286 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 22.0%, 24.2%, and 22.5% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 466 million yuan, 590 million yuan, and 763 million yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with growth rates of 25.5%, 26.4%, and 29.3% [8] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 53.2% in 2025 to 55.8% in 2028 [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.23 yuan, 2.82 yuan, and 3.65 yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [10]

可[Ta孚ble医_Sto疗ckN（ameRptType] 301087） 公司点评 2025 年业绩符合预期，增长新动能充足 | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026-03-12 |  事件： | | 收盘价（元） | 61.64 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 63.99/29.17 | | 总股本（百万股） | 209 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 194 | | 流通股比例（%） | 92.89 | | 总市值（亿元） | 129 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 120 | 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 执业证书号：S0010521120002 邮箱：tangc@hazq.com 执业证书号：S0010523120002 邮箱：lichan@hazq.com 1.【华安医药】公司点评：可孚医疗 场进展迅速 2025-08-28 收入增长持续稳健 2025-05-04 （1）2025Q4 利润端增长喜人。按季度来看，2025Q1-4 分别销售净 利润率为 12.41%/9.90%/10.3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the company, "Ming Ming Hen Mang," is leading a revolution in the snack industry with a focus on high-quality and affordable products. The company has over 20,000 stores, positioning it as the top player in the snack retail sector. The report identifies three key growth drivers: expansion potential, operational efficiency, and continuous business model innovation [7][12][40]. Summary by Relevant Sections Growth Foundation: Store Expansion Potential - The company currently operates over 20,000 stores, with a calculated potential for 35,000 stores, indicating at least 65% room for expansion. The projected annual GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) could exceed 180 billion yuan, driven by expansion into high-tier cities, penetration into lower-tier markets, and filling gaps in northern regions [13][20][28]. Growth Elasticity: Efficiency Improvement - The company is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on operational efficiency. The report anticipates that net profit margins could reach 5%, with potential improvements in gross margins of 2-5 percentage points and cost reductions of 1-1.5 percentage points [40][52]. Potential Increment: Continuous Business Model Innovation - The company is exploring new business models, including discount supermarkets, convenience stores, and fresh snack offerings. It is also making strides in international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [12][40][52]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 65.08 billion yuan, 87.18 billion yuan, and 101.31 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.4%, 34.0%, and 16.2%. Net profit projections for the same years are 2.31 billion yuan, 3.38 billion yuan, and 4.42 billion yuan, with growth rates of 177.2%, 46.0%, and 31.0% [5][12]. Market Position - The company holds a significant market share in the snack retail sector, with a GMV share of 39.6% in 2024. The competitive landscape is characterized by a duopoly with another major player, "Wan Chen," which allows both companies to leverage their scale and brand recognition to capture market share from smaller competitors [14][31][36]. Operational Strategies - The company is enhancing its operational strategies through improved product selection, store format upgrades, and a robust membership system. As of Q3 2025, the registered membership reached 180 million, with a repurchase rate of 77% [48][49][51]. Supply Chain and Cost Efficiency - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain efficiency and the introduction of private label products to enhance gross margins. The company aims to optimize logistics and reduce costs through strategic partnerships and technological advancements [53][54]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the company's long-term value is significant, supported by its growth potential, operational improvements, and innovative business strategies. The initial coverage recommends a "Buy" rating based on these factors [12][40].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the petrochemical sector is experiencing a strong performance driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have led to significant increases in energy and chemical prices. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, pushing international oil prices higher and consequently increasing prices for basic chemicals like naphtha and ethylene, as well as downstream products such as plastics and synthetic fibers [5][34] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in demand as the domestic chemical production expansion cycle comes to an end, with outdated capacities being phased out. This, combined with high energy costs leading to the shutdown of overseas chemical production, is improving the supply-demand dynamics in the industry [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from price increases, including oil, refining, agricultural chemicals, coal chemicals, dyes, and phosphate chemicals, which are expected to provide performance elasticity [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 8th in overall performance for the week of March 2-6, 2026, with a decline of 0.56%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.93%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.45%, indicating that the chemical sector outperformed both indices [21][23] Key Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, driven by high growth in emerging applications such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics. The supply side is stabilizing as no new capacities are expected to come online in 2025, while demand continues to grow [6][9] - The PTA and polyester filament sectors are also expected to benefit from a reduction in overcapacity and improved demand dynamics, with the industry moving towards a more orderly expansion concentrated among leading companies [7][8] - The refrigerant market is entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies and a reduction in supply, with prices expected to rise significantly by 2025 [8] - The report emphasizes the potential of synthetic biology and low-energy products, which may disrupt traditional chemical materials, creating new growth opportunities [9][10] Price Tracking - The report provides a weekly price tracking of key chemical products, highlighting significant price increases for products such as maleic anhydride (63.08%), WTI crude oil (39.40%), and ABS (31.79%) [13] - The report also notes the impact of geopolitical tensions on the prices of various chemicals, with a focus on the supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East [34]

全球科技（计算机） [Table_IndNameRptType] 行业周报 原生智能体加速演进，关注 AI 算力及应用端 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2026-3-9 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 沪深300 计算机（申万） [分析师： Table_Author] 金荣 执业证书号： S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com 分析师：来祚豪 执业证书号： S0010524100001 邮箱：laizh@hazq.com 联系人：刘政 执业证书号： S0010125070006 邮箱：liuzheng@hazq.com 相关报告 1.计算机："火箭+AI+社交平台" 初步整合，关注太空算力。2026-2-8 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] T_Summary] 3 月 5 日，OpenAI 发布 GPT-5.4，原生支持电脑操作 OpenAI 正式推出具备百万级上下文的 GPT-5.4 模型，首次在单一 模型中融合了高阶推理、编程、深度网页搜索与原 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid evolution of native intelligent agents, emphasizing the importance of AI computing power and application [1][5] - OpenAI's release of GPT-5.4 showcases significant advancements in AI capabilities, including native computer operation support and high-level reasoning [5][12] - Google's launch of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite focuses on speed and cost-effectiveness, enhancing AI application accessibility [4][14] - The report suggests monitoring investment opportunities in AI computing infrastructure, edge intelligent hardware, and agent applications [5][15] Summary by Sections 1. Computer Industry Insights - OpenAI's GPT-5.4 model integrates advanced reasoning, programming, and native computer operation capabilities, achieving a 75% success rate in desktop navigation tests [12][13] - GPT-5.4 outperforms human professionals in 83% of cases in complex tasks like spreadsheet modeling and PPT generation [13] - Google's Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite model offers high-speed responses and cost-effective API pricing, with a 2.5x increase in response speed compared to its predecessor [14] 2. Market Performance Review - The computer industry index fell by 5.29%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.36 percentage points [17][20] - Year-to-date, the computer industry index has increased by 2.86% [20] - The report ranks the computer industry index 29th among 31 industry indices this week [17] 3. Technology Software Industry News - AI development is a hot topic at the national level, with discussions on transitioning from "computing power competition" to "intelligent efficiency competition" [25] - The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive legislation and ethical governance in AI development [25] - The establishment of a national-level high-quality corpus is suggested to support AI applications [25] 4. Company Dynamics - Companies like Kingsoft Office and YunTian LiFei reported significant revenue growth, driven by advancements in AI applications [33] - Kingsoft Office's revenue reached approximately 5.929 billion yuan, a 15.78% increase year-on-year [33] - The report notes that companies are focusing on enhancing their core competencies in AI and software development [33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that multiple paper companies have recently issued price increase notices, indicating a potential recovery in profitability due to improved supply-demand dynamics and the correction of previously low prices [4][16] - The report notes that the domestic paper industry is experiencing a wave of price hikes across various paper types, including cultural paper, household paper, and specialty paper, driven by rising raw material costs [4][16] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is affecting logistics and energy costs, indirectly impacting China's pulp imports, but it does not directly influence the pulp production capacity globally [5][22][23] Summary by Sections Price Increases in the Paper Industry - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, major paper companies have issued price increases, with white cardboard prices raised by 200 yuan/ton [4][16] - Cultural paper prices have increased by 200 yuan/ton, household paper by 100 yuan/ton in two increments, and specialty paper by 500 yuan/ton [4][16] Market Data Tracking - As of March 6, 2026, the average market prices for imported needle pulp and broadleaf pulp were 5241 yuan/ton and 4565 yuan/ton, respectively, showing limited month-on-month changes [4][22] - The report tracks various paper product prices, noting that prices for waste paper types have increased by approximately 2% [52] Housing Market Insights - From February 22 to March 1, 2026, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 1.2137 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 1316.97% [36] - The report indicates that the real estate market's recovery could stimulate home consumption growth, benefiting the home furnishing sector [36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector and those with high growth potential in smart home products [9] - In the paper industry, it recommends paying attention to companies with diversified product lines and integrated operations, such as Sun Paper [9] - For the packaging sector, the acquisition of COFCO Packaging by Orijin is expected to enhance market share and pricing power [9]

Market Overview - The government work report's overall tone and policy measures align with expectations, but external disturbances such as the US-Iran conflict and changes in US tariff policies may further increase market volatility [1][2] - In terms of allocation, there is a recommendation to focus more on certainty, with short-term premiums on price increases and stable dividend markets, making sectors like chemicals, machinery, storage, and banking still valuable for allocation [1][2] Government Work Report Insights - The growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, down from last year's 5%, with a fiscal deficit rate of 4% corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.23 trillion yuan from the previous year [11] - The report emphasizes maintaining substantial fiscal spending while optimizing expenditure structure, particularly in supporting consumption and investment [11][12] External Risks - The ongoing US-Iran conflict is expected to escalate, with low probabilities for peace talks in the short term, which could impact US stocks and global capital markets [2][16] - The conflict's potential duration is anticipated to be extended, with US military actions possibly lasting several weeks [17] Industry Allocation - The first benign adjustment period in the growth industry cycle typically lasts around one month, with historical declines in major indices ranging from 10%-20% [19] - Current adjustments show that the maximum decline for the Shanghai Composite Index is less than 3%, and for the ChiNext Index, it is 5.5%, indicating a divergence from historical patterns [19][21] Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector has seen a rise due to increased risk aversion amid the US-Iran conflict, with a weekly increase of 1.64%, ranking fifth among major industries [30][31] - The current dividend yield for banks is around 4.7%, which is expected to provide support for the sector in the short term [33] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Sectors with clear price increase trends and expectations, such as chemicals and machinery [36] 2. Dividend assets like banks that can provide stability amid increased market volatility [36] 3. Seasonal opportunities in infrastructure construction, particularly in strong sectors [37] 4. The AI industry chain as a core direction for the medium to long term, despite short-term volatility [37]

中烟香港 [Table_StockNameRptType] （6055.HK） 公司点评 25 年度业绩稳健增长，盈利能力进一步提升 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026-03-06 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） | 38.56 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（港元）47.10/20.00 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 692 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 692 | | --- | --- | | 流通股比例（%） | 100 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 267 | | 流通市值（亿港元） | 267 | [公司价格与恒生指数走势比较 Table_Chart] [Table_Author] 分析师：徐偲 执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 执业证书号：S0010524040004 邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com ⚫ 烟叶进出口业务收入稳健增长，卷烟出口业务盈利能力进一步提升 [Table_CompanyReport] ...