[Table_IndNameRptType] 海外及传媒 行业年度投资策略 海外及传媒年度策略：算力飞轮、多极模型生 态与 Agent 化生产力 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-12-17 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300&纳斯达克& 恒生科技走势比较 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2025/1/2 2025/4/2 2025/7/2 2025/10/2 沪深300 传媒 计算机 恒生科技 纳斯达克综指 [Table_Author] 分析师：金荣 执业证书号：S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com 分析师：来祚豪 执业证书号：S0010524100001 邮箱：laizh@hazq.com 分析师：赵亮 执业证书号：S0010525070001 邮箱：zhaoliang@hazq.com 分析师：赵浦轩 执业证书号：S0010525100002 邮箱：zhaopuxuan@hazq.com 联系人：刘政 执业证书号：S0010125070006 邮箱：liuzheng@hazq.com [Table_Re ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes two main investment themes for the chemical industry: anti-involution policies and domestic substitution, which are expected to drive recovery and growth in the sector [4][5][6] Anti-Involution and Cycle Recovery - The report suggests that the chemical industry is at a turning point, with anti-involution measures leading to a recovery in the cycle. Key areas include the peak of new capacity in organic silicon, the end of PTA capacity expansion, and a rebound in prices for certain chemicals due to supply chain disruptions [4][5] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has decreased significantly, dropping to 3865 points by November 30, 2025, down 16.37% from early 2024 and 10.71% from the beginning of 2025 [4][20] Domestic Substitution as a Growth Driver - Domestic substitution is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant support from national policies for bio-based materials and advancements in technology leading to a more robust domestic supply chain [4][6] - The report identifies several companies positioned to benefit from these trends, including KaiSai Bio and RuiFeng New Materials, which are making strides in bio-based materials and lubricant additives, respectively [5][6] Market Dynamics and Price Recovery - The report notes that while the chemical market is experiencing a downturn, certain segments are expected to see price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced capacity expansion [4][22] - Specific chemical products have shown varied price movements, with some experiencing significant declines while others are stabilizing or recovering [22] Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which is anticipated to support the chemical industry. The report mentions that the real estate market is stabilizing, and automotive production has increased, indicating a potential uptick in demand for chemical products [25][33] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry is slowing, with a notable decline in new projects. The report indicates that the total construction in progress for the chemical sector was 327.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 17.64% year-on-year [34][39] Inventory and Consumption Trends - High inventory levels in the chemical sector are being addressed as consumer demand begins to recover. The report suggests that the inventory-to-revenue ratio for the basic chemical industry was 0.62 in Q3 2025, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [41][42] Profitability and Financial Performance - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for the chemical industry, with gross margins and return on equity (ROE) showing improvement in Q3 2025 compared to previous periods [56][60] - Specific sub-sectors, such as agrochemicals and fluorochemicals, have demonstrated significant profit growth, with some exceeding 100% year-on-year increases [55][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].

专题报告 高弹性 Alpha 的量化掘金：从盲区识别到策略构建 [Table_StockNameRptType] 金融工程 ——量化研究系列报告之二十五 传统多因子模型存在双重内生局限：其分散化构建哲学与结构性行 情中收益极端右偏分布相矛盾，造成"收益稀释"；同时，因子库严重依赖 历史有效的低波动、高盈利风格，形成路径依赖，本质上成为 Smart Beta 增强组合，缺失对高弹性风格的捕捉能力。 ⚫ 基于非线性预测与高弹性分域的双轮驱动 本文提出了基于 XGBoost 非线性预测和高弹性 Alpha 挖掘的多策 略解决方案。引入 XGBoost 模型，从相似特征中提取差异化 Alpha，其 全市场分十组多头年化超额达 20.0%，信息比率 3.78。此外，我们针对 性构建高弹性策略，通过融合因子域内绩效与对传统多因子基准策略的 分散化价值进行配置，该策略年化超额达 14.1%，并与基准策略超额收 益的相关性为-10%，在基准策略失效月份平均提供 1.9%的正向对冲收 益，有效弥补了传统多因子模型的风格盲区。 [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期：202 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is accelerating, with a focus on humanoid robots [1] - The humanoid robot sector is expected to expand, particularly in high-risk work environments [13] - Recent developments include the launch of the first humanoid robot application store and the establishment of a provincial drone management platform in Guangdong [3][2] Weekly Market Review - Major A-share indices showed significant recovery, with weekly changes for the CSI 300, ChiNext 300, STAR 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 being -0.08%, 2.42%, 1.72%, 1.01%, and 0.39% respectively, with the ChiNext 300 showing the most notable rebound [10][12] - The humanoid robot sector has seen a mixed performance, with top gainers including Chaojie Co., Hualing Cable, and Changguang Fiber, while losers included Ruineng Technology and Nanshan Zhishang [20][21] Recent Hotspots and Events - National Machine Diamond's technological breakthroughs in diamond synthesis and applications were highlighted in a CCTV Finance program [2] - The launch of the Lingxi X2 humanoid robot by Zhiyuan Robotics received multiple certifications for the Chinese, EU, and US markets [2] Emerging Industry Company Tracking - The launch of the humanoid robot application store by Yushu Technology is a significant development in the industry [3] - Guangdong's establishment of a provincial drone management platform aims to create a unified service ecosystem [3] - Blues Technology announced plans to acquire Peimei Gao International Co., enhancing its capabilities in advanced liquid cooling systems [3] - The China National Space Administration's action plan encourages commercial aerospace companies to engage in international competition [3] Key Emerging Industry Company Announcements - Zhejiang Double Ring Transmission's employee stock ownership plan was approved, with unanimous support from participants [23][24] - Huahai Qingke's fourth extraordinary shareholders' meeting approved the reappointment of the auditing firm for 2025 [25]

策略研究 周度报告 换手率对当下成长行情节奏如何指示？ [分Ta析bl师e_：Au郑th小or霞] 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 2025-12-08 2.策略月报《酝酿新机—2025 年 12 2025-11-30 弈？》2025-11-23 4.策略周报《哪些低估滞涨方向尚未 轮动？》2025-11-16 主要观点 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-12-14 [Table_Summary] 中央经济工作会议和美联储议息会议平稳落地，政策整体保持连贯 性、边际变化有限，11 月已公布经济数据延续此前趋势，预计市 场延续高位震荡态势不变。配置上，行业轮动仍是主基调、 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the OCS optical switch industry as a promising investment opportunity, highlighting its potential growth driven by AI computing demands [3]. Core Insights - The OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) technology is positioned as an ideal solution for high-bandwidth, low-latency communication, essential for AI model training and data center interconnectivity [3][10]. - The global OCS market is projected to grow from $0.7 billion in 2020 to $7.8 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62% [3][50]. - The OCS industry is characterized by high technical barriers and a fragmented supply chain, with key players concentrated in specific segments of the value chain [3][55]. Summary by Sections 1. OCS Technology Overview - OCS operates on a fully optical signal basis, eliminating the need for optical-electrical-optical conversion, thus reducing latency and power consumption [9]. - The technology is crucial for AI computing clusters, particularly in scenarios like Scale-Up, Scale-Out, and Scale-Across, which require efficient interconnectivity [10][12]. 2. Market Growth and Demand - The demand for OCS is driven by the increasing requirements for bandwidth and low latency in AI model training, with major applications in data centers [3][10]. - Major companies like Google and Coherent are leading the market, which is expected to see significant growth in the coming years [3][50]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - The OCS industry chain consists of upstream core components, midstream equipment integration, and downstream applications, with high technical barriers in the upstream segment [55][57]. - Key players in the upstream include MEMS manufacturers, while midstream is dominated by international firms like Ciena and domestic players like Guangke Technology [55][56]. 4. Investment Opportunities - Companies like Ying Tang Intelligent Control are recommended for their comprehensive OCS technology layout and potential for growth in the AI computing market [66]. - Semiconductor manufacturer Saiwei Electronics is highlighted for its strong position in the MEMS sector, which is critical for OCS technology [66][94].

[Table_IndNameRptType] 全球科技 行业周报 DeepSeek V3.2 发布，可灵开启可灵全能灵感周 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 [Table_Author] 分析师：金荣 执业证书号：S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com 分析师：赵亮 执业证书号：S0010525070001 邮箱： zhaoliang@hazq.com 分析师：赵浦轩 执业证书号：S0010525100002 邮箱： zhaopuxuan@hazq.com 相关报告 报告日期： 2025-12-07 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 1.AI 漫剧起势，供需双向推动 2025- 10-28 2.AI 应用新范式：从工具革命到"超 级 OS"的演进与商业化路径 2025-10- 27 主要观点： [⚫Table_Summary] 本周行情回顾 从指数表现来看，本周(2025-12-01 至 2025-12-05)，上证指 数周涨跌幅为 0.37%, 创业板指周涨跌幅为 1.86%, 沪深 300 周涨 跌幅为 1.28%, 中证 1000 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType] 机械设备 行业专题 机械设备行业 2025 年三季报复盘 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-12-07 [行业指数与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师： 陶俞佳 执业证书号：S0010524100004 邮箱：taoyujia@hazq.com 主要观点： [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] ⚫ 板块层面 综合机械设备行业三季报复盘，从板块来看，工程机械板块成 长性相对较好，营业收入增速、净利率增速及净利率增幅均不低于 机械设备行业总体情况，另外从合同负债层面来看，2024 年及 2025Q1-3 合同负债增速均提升，建议重点关注。 2024：1）营业收入增速：通用设备（+，相较于 2024Q1-3 提 升，下同）>自动化设备（-，相较于 2024Q1-3 下滑，下同）>机械 设备行业总计（+）>工程机械（+）>轨交设备（+）；2）净利率： 工程机械（-）>自动化设备（-）>轨交设 ...

保隆科技（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 603197） 公司点评 传感器业务保持快速增长，业绩拐点有望显现 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-12-03 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 35.25 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 54.99/32.32 | | 总股本（百万股） | 214 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 214 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | 75 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 75 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -24% -7% 10% 26% 43% 12/24 3/25 6/25 9/25 12/25 保隆科技 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：张志邦 执业证书号：S0010523120004 电话：15652947918 邮箱：zhangzhibang@hazq.com 分析师：刘千琳 执业证书号：S0010524050002 邮箱：liu ...