1月美联储议息会议传递的信号：“再通胀”风险增加，关注AI的宏观影响

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, indicating a neutral to slightly hawkish stance[2] - The removal of the phrase regarding progress towards the 2% inflation target suggests an increased assessment of "re-inflation" risks[1] - Future interest rate cuts are expected to be limited to 1 or 2 times in 2025, with a potential cut in the first half of the year[5] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The U.S. CPI inflation rebounded from 2.4% in September to 2.9% in December, indicating upward pressure on inflation[6] - The potential for U.S. CPI to approach 3% by 2025 is highlighted, reflecting increasing inflation risks[5] - The current interest rate path has not fully accounted for the impacts of Trump's policies, suggesting limited room for rate cuts[5] Group 3: Market Reactions and AI Impact - The introduction of the DeepSeek model has caused significant volatility in the U.S. stock market, which has macroeconomic implications[2] - The stock market's fluctuations could negatively impact consumer balance sheets and spending capacity, making it a core variable in Federal Reserve decision-making[5] - The structural share of equity and stock assets in U.S. household wealth is around 34%, exceeding levels before the 1999 tech bubble[5] Group 4: Currency and Debt Considerations - The U.S. dollar index is expected to challenge the 114-115 range in 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies[7] - U.S. debt levels are reliant on potential economic growth driven by technological advancements to mitigate deficits[4] - The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is projected to fluctuate between 4%-5% in 2025, with a low probability of exceeding 5% without further rate hikes[7]