VANKE(000002) 国金证券·2025-02-02 15:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to report a significant loss in 2024, with a projected net profit of -450 billion RMB compared to a profit of 122 billion RMB in 2023. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be -410 billion RMB, down from 98 billion RMB in 2023 [1][2] - The new management team, led by Xin Jie, aims to address risks and ensure project deliveries, reflecting a deeper involvement of state-owned enterprises in the company's operations [1] - Support from local government and financial institutions is emphasized, with commitments to stabilize the company's financing and assist in risk management [6] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 465.739 billion RMB in 2023 to 390.115 billion RMB in 2024, representing a decrease of 16.24% [5] - The company's net profit is forecasted to drop significantly, with estimates of -44.767 billion RMB in 2024 and -9.825 billion RMB in 2025 [5] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -3.752 RMB in 2024 and -0.823 RMB in 2025 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be -21.73% in 2024 and -5.01% in 2025 [5] Market Context - The real estate market is experiencing sluggish sales, and the company's operational services are facing challenges, leading to debt defaults [3] - The report highlights the need for the company to manage its assets effectively and improve liquidity to navigate the current market conditions [6]