铜行业专题报告：缺矿共识下，价格中枢有望上行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The consensus on copper supply shortage suggests that the price center is expected to rise [1][3] - The copper industry is currently in a production expansion phase, but the growth rate is declining [3][37] - Demand for copper is stable with slight growth, driven by traditional and new energy sectors [3][81] Summary by Sections Copper Industry Chain Overview - The copper industry chain consists of upstream mining, midstream smelting, and downstream demand [8][11] - Copper is a significant industrial metal with both commodity and financial attributes, influencing its price and volatility [8] Mining: Expansion Phase but Declining Growth Rate - Global copper reserves have increased to 1 billion tons, with the top five countries holding 57% of the total [23] - Capital expenditure in mining is expected to influence long-term supply trends, with a peak in production anticipated around 2028-2029 [26][31] - Global copper mine production is projected to increase by 53,000 tons (3.0%) in 2024, reaching a peak increment of 103,000 tons (4.9%) in 2028 [37] Smelting: Supply Shortage Transmitting to Refined Copper - The processing fee for copper concentrate is set at $21.25 per ton for 2025, significantly lower than previous years, leading to potential losses for high-cost smelters [42] - The refined copper production is expected to grow, with an increment of 84,000 tons (3.2%) in 2024, peaking at 108,000 tons (3.7%) in 2027 [49] Demand: Stable Growth Driven by New and Traditional Sectors - Demand for copper is projected to be 2,685 million tons in 2024, with growth rates of 3.2%, 3.7%, 3.5%, and 3.4% from 2024 to 2027 [81] - Investment in the power grid is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, maintaining stable copper demand [52] - The growth in renewable energy sectors, including solar and wind, is anticipated to drive copper demand further [67][71][75]