2025年电动车&锂电投资策略报告：电车竞争力再上层楼，技术变革加速进行中

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The domestic and international electric vehicle market is expected to steadily improve, with a projected global growth rate of over 20% for new energy vehicles in 2025. The expected sales volume for new energy passenger vehicles in 2024 is 12.159 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%, and for 2025, it is preliminarily expected to be 15.202 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25% [3][29] - The midstream technology product iteration is improving the supply-demand structure. The operating rates for various components show significant improvement, with phosphoric iron lithium at 84%, negative electrodes at 82%, and lithium hexafluorophosphate at 69% [3] - Solid-state batteries are expected to bring disruptive changes, with fast charging, battery swapping, and sodium-ion batteries entering mass production. Domestic automakers and battery companies are accelerating their layouts in solid-state batteries, with some planning to achieve full solid-state battery installations by 2026-2027 [3] - Investment suggestions include focusing on new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, with specific companies highlighted for their competitive advantages and technological leadership [3] Demand Outlook - The domestic demand for new energy vehicles is expected to exceed expectations in 2024, with a projected sales volume of 12.159 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%, and a penetration rate of approximately 44.8%, up by 10.1 percentage points year-on-year [9][29] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to continue rising, with a preliminary forecast of 55.3% for 2025, an increase of 10.5 percentage points year-on-year [29] Midstream Supply and Demand - The technological transformation is accelerating, leading to an optimized supply-demand structure. The report indicates that various components are entering a recovery phase in profitability after a price war in 2023-2024 [3] New Technologies - Solid-state batteries and other new technologies are entering the mass production phase, with significant strategic importance in the global technology competition [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages, leading fast-charging technologies, and those benefiting from production schedules and price elasticity [3]