日本食饮深度报告系列之三：软饮赛道长青，无糖化健康化潮涌

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The soft drink sector in Japan has shown sustained growth in consumption, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.55% in household expenditure from 1990 to 2023, driven primarily by increased consumption volume [19][9] - The average price of soft drinks in Japan has experienced a decline followed by a recovery, with a CAGR of -1.63% from 1990 to 2010, and a subsequent increase from 324.2 yen/liter to 347.6 yen/liter from 2010 to 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 0.54% [19][9] - The market for sugar-free beverages in Japan has expanded significantly, with the market size growing from 2.71 trillion yen in 1990 to 3.75 trillion yen in 2023, increasing its market share from 12% to 56% [10][19] Summary by Sections 1. Soft Drink Sector Growth - The Japanese soft drink market has seen continuous growth in both consumption and expenditure, with household spending on soft drinks rising from 3.91 million yen in 1990 to 6.49 million yen in 2023 [19][9] - Per capita consumption of soft drinks has increased from 86.9 liters per year to 186.8 liters per year, with a CAGR of 2.35% [19][9] 2. Historical Development of the Japanese Soft Drink Market - The market has evolved through three stages: rapid growth in the 1960s to early 1980s, a shift towards tea drinks in the 1980s to 2010, and a focus on health and sugar-free options from 2011 to 2023 [26][27][28] 3. Internal Structural Changes in the Soft Drink Market - The rise of vending machines and the post-war economic boom significantly boosted the consumption of carbonated drinks and coffee in the early stages [41][42] - The health trend led to the emergence of tea drinks as a mainstream option, with tea drink production increasing from 120 million liters in 1985 to 662.49 million liters in 2022, achieving a CAGR of 11.45% [44][45] 4. Yield Performance of the Soft Drink Sector - The soft drink sector has outperformed other necessary consumption categories, with companies like ITO EN achieving an excess return of 358.9% from 1992 to 2009 [11] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand power and distribution channels in the sugar-free beverage and ready-to-drink tea sectors, highlighting key players such as Nongfu Spring, Tingyi Holdings, Uni-President, and China Resources Beverage [10][11]