2025年1月PMI数据点评：季节性叠加需求前置，景气度表现偏弱

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In January 2025, the Manufacturing PMI fell by 1 percentage point to 49.1%, below market expectations and lower than the historical average of 50.2% for January from 2015 to 2024[2] - The New Orders Index decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 49.2%, falling below the expansion threshold after three months of growth[2] - The Production Index dropped by 2.3 percentage points to 49.8%, marking a contraction after four months of expansion[2] Employment and Business Expectations - The Employment Index remained stable at 48.1, indicating a steady job market despite the overall PMI decline[2] - The Business Activity Expectation Index rose by 2 percentage points to 55.3, reflecting optimism among enterprises regarding future production activities[2] Export and Import Trends - The New Export Orders Index fell to 46.4%, the lowest level since February 2024, while the Import Index decreased to 48.1%[2] - The decline in exports is attributed to the end of the holiday shopping season in Europe and the U.S., along with previous front-loaded demand[2] Sector Performance - The Consumer Goods PMI decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 49.1%, with the New Orders Index dropping over 4 percentage points into contraction territory[3] - The Equipment Manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.2%, despite a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points[3] Price Indices and Inventory Levels - The Purchasing Price Index rose by 1.3 percentage points to 49.5%, while the Ex-factory Price Index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 47.4%[4] - The Finished Goods Inventory Index fell to 46.5%, continuing a trend of low inventory levels for 23 consecutive months[4] Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index dropped to 50.2%, down 2 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the neutral line[5] - The Construction PMI fell to 49.3%, indicating a contraction influenced by seasonal factors ahead of the Spring Festival[5]