特朗普新政系列研究七：Q1窗口期关税剧烈升级概率小

Group 1: Tariff Overview - Trump announced a 10% tariff on China and a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, with the latter's energy products only facing a 10% tariff, indicating inflation considerations[1] - The tariffs are primarily aimed at addressing short-term issues like immigration and fentanyl, with a lower likelihood of significant escalation in Q1[1] - Future tariff policies will depend on the negotiation process between China and the U.S., with a potential for more regular tariffs to be introduced after April[2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The imposition of a 10% tariff could lead to a 0.64% increase in U.S. inflation by 2025, potentially rising to 1.34% if retaliatory measures are taken[3] - A 60% tariff on China could result in a 0.39% inflation increase, with a possible rise to 0.71% under retaliatory conditions[3] - The current inflation rate in the U.S. has risen from 2.4% in September to 2.9% in December, which may constrain Trump's tariff policies[3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The report anticipates a "bull market" in both stocks and bonds due to economic pressure and monetary easing, with a potential 100 basis points (BP) of reserve requirement cuts and 30 to 50 BP of interest rate cuts expected in 2025[6] - A potential "bull market" in A-shares is expected if U.S.-China relations improve, with a focus on technology growth stocks in the short term[6] - The dollar index is projected to challenge the 114-115 range in 2025, influenced by uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and global supply chain adjustments[7]