交通运输行业周报（2025年1月27日-2025年2月2日）：美国加税或利好油运，春运迎客流高峰

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The shipping industry may benefit from the U.S. imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, potentially increasing oil shipping volumes by 3.5% if 1.4 million barrels per day of U.S. imports shift to maritime sources [5][6] - The spring festival travel peak has seen a significant increase in passenger flow, with a cumulative growth of 7.9% year-on-year [9][11] - The airline industry is expected to experience long-term demand growth due to macroeconomic recovery, with a focus on companies like Air China and China Southern Airlines [15] - The express delivery sector shows resilience in demand, with major players like ZTO Express and YTO Express positioned for long-term growth despite price competition [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Maritime - The oil tanker newbuilding orders are limited, and with the aging fleet, supply tightness is expected to persist, benefiting oil shipping demand [17] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover due to environmental regulations affecting older fleets and the upcoming production of iron ore in 2025 [17] - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a green renewal cycle, with tight capacity leading to increased ship prices [17] Air Transportation - The airline industry is witnessing a long-term supply-demand imbalance, with a positive outlook for companies involved in aircraft leasing [15] - The spring festival travel data indicates a strong recovery in passenger numbers, with a notable increase in air travel demand [9][11] Express Delivery - The express delivery market is currently facing a price war, but leading companies have sufficient safety margins in their valuations [16] - The overall demand for express services remains robust, with significant year-on-year growth in business volume [25] Logistics and Supply Chain - The logistics sector is seeing a positive trend, with companies like DeBang Logistics and Aneng Logistics benefiting from strategic transformations [17] - The chemical logistics market is expanding, with significant growth potential for leading companies [17]