GEELY AUTO(HK:00175) Orient Securities·2025-02-04 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The new vehicle cycle is expected to significantly boost sales in 2024, with a projected total sales volume of 2.169 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.4% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 1.43, 1.08, and 1.29 yuan respectively, with a target price set at 16.20 yuan (or 17.60 HKD) [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: - 2022: 147,965 million yuan - 2023: 179,204 million yuan (21.1% YoY growth) - 2024E: 224,632 million yuan (25.4% YoY growth) - 2025E: 269,476 million yuan (20.0% YoY growth) - 2026E: 316,008 million yuan (17.3% YoY growth) [4] - Net Profit: - 2022: 5,260 million yuan - 2023: 5,308 million yuan (0.9% YoY growth) - 2024E: 14,442 million yuan (172.1% YoY growth) - 2025E: 10,884 million yuan (-24.6% YoY growth) - 2026E: 12,948 million yuan (19.0% YoY growth) [4] - EPS: - 2022: 0.52 yuan - 2023: 0.53 yuan - 2024E: 1.43 yuan - 2025E: 1.08 yuan - 2026E: 1.29 yuan [4] - Profitability Ratios: - Gross Margin: 14.1% (2022), 15.3% (2023), 15.6% (2024E-2026E) - Net Margin: 3.6% (2022), 3.0% (2023), 6.4% (2024E), 4.0% (2025E), 4.1% (2026E) [4] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of January 28, 2025, is 14.3 HKD, with a 52-week high of 16.44 HKD and a low of 7.08 HKD [5] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is projected at 15 times [2]