2025年1月宏观数据前瞻：1月经济：节日效应凸显，静候股债双牛

Economic Indicators - January CPI is expected to rebound to 0.6% year-on-year (previous value: 0.1%), with a month-on-month increase of 0.8%[1] - PPI is projected to remain stable at -2.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2%[2] - The GDP growth target for 2025 is anticipated to be around 5%, with Q1 GDP growth potentially reaching 5.1%[1] Financial Data - New RMB loans in January are expected to increase by 5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 800 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.5%[3] - Social financing is projected to add 7.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 728.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.1%[3] - M2 growth rate is expected to be 7.2%, slightly down from 7.3%[3] Market Outlook - The current phase of US-China relations is seen as a critical turning point, potentially leading to a temporary easing of tensions, which may enhance market risk appetite[1] - A dual bull market in stocks and bonds is anticipated, driven by monetary policy easing and improved risk sentiment, although fluctuations may occur during the process[1][18] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with a potential 100 basis points of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions of 30 to 50 basis points[3][19]