FY25美国财政：一个基准情形

Revenue Insights - U.S. federal fiscal revenue is projected to reach approximately $4.92 trillion in FY24, with a deficit of $1.83 trillion, resulting in a deficit rate of 6.4%[10] - Individual income tax revenue for FY24 is estimated at $2.43 trillion, with a projected increase to $2.55 trillion in FY25, reflecting a growth rate of around 10%[17] - Payroll tax revenue is expected to stabilize at approximately $1.8 trillion in FY25, maintaining a steady growth trend[23] Expenditure Overview - Mandatory spending constitutes 60% of federal expenditures, primarily driven by Social Security and Medicare, with Social Security projected to reach $1.53 trillion in FY25[26] - Discretionary spending, which requires congressional approval, is expected to grow by about 1% in FY25, with defense spending anticipated to decline due to easing geopolitical tensions[30] - Interest expenditures are forecasted to rise to $1.02 trillion in FY25, up from $0.95 trillion in FY24, highlighting a significant fiscal challenge[36] Fiscal Policy and Reform - The potential for tax reform under the Trump administration remains uncertain, with legislative processes likely delaying significant changes until after FY25[16] - The D.O.G.E initiative aims to reduce discretionary spending by targeting expired authorizations, potentially saving over $300 billion[47] - CBO predicts a slight decrease in the deficit rate to 6.5% in FY25, driven by robust revenue growth outpacing expenditure increases[39]