关税靴子落地，节后春季行情延续

Market Trends - Most risk factors that worried the market before the holiday did not materialize during the break, indicating a potential continuation of the spring market after the holiday[6] - During the Spring Festival, the nationwide cross-regional passenger flow increased by an average of 12% compared to last year, reflecting strong consumer sentiment[6] - The box office for the Spring Festival reached 1.805 billion yuan, with 35.153 million viewers, both setting new records in Chinese film history[6] - The A-share market has historically shown a tendency to rise in February, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising in 11 out of the last 15 years, averaging a gain of 2.2%[10] Style Assessment - The growth style is expected to dominate in the short to medium term, supported by rising profits and credit, as well as loose liquidity conditions[17] - Industrial profits rebounded significantly, with a monthly year-on-year increase of 11.0% in December, marking the highest level in nearly 11 months[17] - A-share net profit growth is showing a recovery trend, with a year-on-year decline of only 0.1% as of February 3, 2025, compared to -0.3% in the previous quarter[17] Industry Allocation - Focus on technology and certain consumer sectors post-holiday, as historical data shows that consumer and high-growth industries tend to perform well after the Spring Festival[19] - The furniture, home appliances, and semiconductor industries are expected to perform relatively well due to the shift of export shares to emerging markets, minimizing the impact of new tariffs[25] - The domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate has increased by 6.4% from 2020 to 2024, indicating a reduced impact from tariffs compared to 2018[28]