Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the building materials industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The building materials sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate market, particularly through the demand for renovation in the second-hand housing market and the ongoing transformation of supply channels [2][7] - Cement and fiberglass industries are anticipated to experience a bottom-up recovery, supported by improved pricing strategies and demand stabilization [3][7] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Real estate sales area is expected to stabilize, with construction and new starts still under pressure, while infrastructure investment is projected to act as a stabilizer for growth in 2025 [1] - The real estate sector will maintain a loose policy framework in 2024, with significant policy releases on May 17 and September 24 aimed at improving sales data, leading to a reduction in the year-on-year decline in new housing sales area [1][16] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 4.4% year-on-year in 2024, with fiscal policies set to be positive in 2025, supporting a faster pace of infrastructure investment [1] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is expected to face revenue and performance declines in 2024 due to the real estate sector's challenges, but leading companies are effectively implementing channel construction and product expansion strategies [2] - The demand for consumer building materials in 2025 will shift towards renovation needs driven by the recovery in second-hand housing transactions and the redecoration of existing homes [2] - The credit risk release in the real estate sector is likely to reach its tail end in 2024, with significant potential for performance recovery in 2025 [2] Cement - The cement industry is currently facing demand shrinkage and oversupply, but a strategic shift among leading companies is expected to enhance profitability through price increases starting in late 2024 [3] - The demand for cement is anticipated to be dragged down by new housing starts in 2025, but sufficient funding support for infrastructure projects is expected to create demand [3] - Supply-side optimization policies are expected to alleviate supply-demand imbalances, supporting price stabilization and profit recovery in the cement sector [3] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is experiencing pressure from declining demand, but a series of price recovery initiatives are expected to improve performance gradually [7] - The demand from downstream sectors, particularly wind energy and automotive, is projected to improve, contributing to a positive outlook for fiberglass pricing and profitability in 2025 [7] - The supply-side capacity is still growing, but the willingness of fiberglass companies to maintain price levels is clear, indicating potential for improved pricing and profitability in 2025 [7]
建材：消费建材C端属性占优，水泥、玻纤或迎底部上行
国投证券·2025-02-04 06:00