轻工制造行业事项点评：出口链：关税初步落地，后续如何展望

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the impact of newly imposed tariffs by the Trump administration on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, with a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on Chinese products [3][4] - The report suggests that the tariffs may primarily serve as a political tool for negotiation rather than a definitive trade policy, indicating potential room for further discussions [3] - It highlights that the overall export volume from China has been growing at a CAGR of 6.3% from 2018 to 2023, despite the tariffs, with the share of exports to the US decreasing from 19.3% to 14.8% [4] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report notes that the 25% tariff on Mexican goods may significantly affect transshipment trade, but the impact on compliant light industry enterprises is expected to be limited due to their established overseas production bases [4][5] - The anticipated 10% tariff on Chinese goods is also expected to have a limited effect, as leading companies have already shifted their supply chains to Southeast Asia, which can adequately cover US orders [5][6] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a positive outlook for export companies in the first half of 2025, driven by improved overseas economic data and optimistic order forecasts [7] - It recommends focusing on companies with strong overseas layouts and resilient performance, such as Yongyi Co., Jiangxin Home, and others that are well-positioned for growth [7]