策略周报：第二波上涨有望逐步启动

Group 1 - The report indicates that the second wave of the bull market is expected to gradually start, with the next key focus point being before the Spring Festival, following a previous report that identified September 2024 as a good buying point [3][6]. - The main drivers for the early stage of the market increase include active capital around the Spring Festival, lower-than-expected US trade policies, and strong performance in Hong Kong stocks [3][6]. - The report anticipates that the initial speed of the second wave of the bull market will be slow due to low profit realization expectations across various industries [3][6]. Group 2 - The emergence of DeepSeek has reinforced the long-term logic of the AI industry chain but has also increased uncertainty regarding profit realization within the AI sector, making it difficult for investors to identify which segments will yield certain profits [4][7]. - Historical data shows that previous growth stock bull markets were accompanied by stronger return on equity (ROE) for growth stocks, although these periods were generally short-lived [4][10]. - The report suggests that changes in US trade policies will have a minimal impact on the domestic capital market, indicating that now is a good time for asset allocation in China [4][14]. Group 3 - Seasonal trends suggest that the market may perform strongly in the 1-2 weeks following the Spring Festival, with historical data supporting this expectation [4][17]. - The report provides a configuration suggestion table, recommending sectors such as Hong Kong internet, banks, and steel, while advising caution in real estate until post-Spring Festival data is validated [22][23]. - The report highlights that the current investment environment favors small-cap low-price strategies, which have historically yielded strong excess returns during the early stages of a bull market [22][23].