如何评估各类资产收益(一):银行买债还有性价比吗?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-02-04 10:00

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The report concludes that, without considering capital savings, lending is currently more profitable than buying bonds [7] - The report systematically constructs a comprehensive income measurement framework for various asset classes within banks, which will be updated regularly for investor reference [7] Summary by Sections Asset Yield Comparison - Corporate loans have a weighted average interest rate of 3.51%, retail loans (including mortgage rates) are at 3.31%, and financial market investments yield 1.41% [3] - The EVA (Economic Value Added) for corporate loans is significantly higher than for government bonds, with corporate loans at 0.62% compared to 5Y government bonds at 0.14% [2] Cost of Liabilities - The average cost of liabilities is estimated as follows: corporate at 1.15%, retail at 1.49%, and financial market at 1.70% [4] Credit Cost Comparison - The credit cost for corporate loans is 1.32%, while retail loans range from 0.70% to 1.25%, and government bonds have a credit cost of 0% [5] Tax Cost Analysis - Government bonds enjoy a tax advantage of over 40 basis points due to exemptions from corporate income tax and value-added tax [6] Capital Cost Comparison - The capital cost is relatively lower for financial market operations, with the capital cost rate calculated based on RWA weight, core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and ROE [8] Investment Recommendations - Looking ahead to 2025, there are absolute return opportunities in bank stocks, particularly in undervalued and high-dividend small and medium-sized banks [9] - Specific stock recommendations include Jiangsu Bank, China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Bank, Industrial Bank, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank [9]