长城汽车：1月销量符合预期，坦克500Hi4Z交付亮眼

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 39.80 CNY per share [3]. Core Views - January sales met expectations, with a total wholesale volume of 81,000 units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 40% and a year-on-year decrease of 22% [1][2]. - The decline in sales is attributed to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, with a notable drop in both new energy and fuel vehicle sales [2]. - The Tank 500Hi4Z model has shown strong delivery performance, with 3,668 units delivered within 20 days of its launch [2][3]. - The company is expected to enter a new growth phase, driven by a comprehensive transformation and successful product launches [3]. Sales Performance - In January, the breakdown of sales included 22,000 new energy vehicles (down 47% month-on-month, down 11% year-on-year) and 59,000 fuel vehicles (down 37% month-on-month, down 26% year-on-year) [2]. - Retail sales for January are estimated at approximately 55,000 units, with new energy vehicle retail sales around 20,000 units [2]. - The Tank brand sold 13,000 units in January, while the Haval brand sold 49,000 units, and the Wey brand sold 5,007 units, reflecting varying performance across different models [2][3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Great Wall Motors from 2024 to 2026 are 12.73 billion CNY, 17.03 billion CNY, and 19.01 billion CNY, respectively [3][10]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are expected to be 16.7, 12.5, and 11.2 times [3][10]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue, with estimates of 202.31 billion CNY in 2024, 290.17 billion CNY in 2025, and 324.99 billion CNY in 2026 [10]. Market Outlook - The off-road market presents substantial growth potential, with the Hi4Z technology expected to enhance the Tank brand's market penetration [3]. - The company is focusing on refining its products and marketing strategies, which are anticipated to yield positive results in the domestic market [3]. - Great Wall Motors has a diverse product lineup and strong technological capabilities, indicating significant export potential as new models and powertrains are introduced [3].