Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased by 2.1 percent month-on-month in December 2024, indicating a ramp-up in production to meet year-end consumer demand, although the PMI fell to 49.8, suggesting contraction in manufacturing sales prospects [7][8] - Exports grew by 12.8 percent year-on-year in December, driven by computers, electric products, and textiles, while imports increased by 19.2 percent year-on-year, leading to a trade balance of US$ 524 million [12][14] - Retail sales rose by 1.2 percent month-on-month and 9.3 percent year-on-year in December, supported by increased sales of goods and services, with international visitors increasing by 27.4 percent year-on-year [10][11] - FDI commitments surged to US$ 6.8 billion in December, with disbursement reaching US$ 25.4 billion, a 9.4 percent increase from the previous year, indicating strong interest in the manufacturing sector [14] - CPI inflation slightly increased to 2.9 percent in December, driven by higher costs of building materials, while credit growth reached 15.1 percent year-on-year, aligning with the SBV's target [17][19] - Revenue collection for 2024 was 16.2 percent higher than in 2023, while public investment disbursement was estimated at 77.5 percent of the approved budget allocation, below the previous year's rate [23] Summary by Sections Recent Economic Developments - Industrial production increased by 2.1 percent month-on-month in December, with key export products seeing growth, although the PMI indicated a slowdown in new orders [8] - Retail sales improved by 1.2 percent month-on-month and 9.3 percent year-on-year, with a notable recovery in foreign tourism [10] - Exports and imports increased by 4.1 percent and 6.1 percent month-on-month respectively, with a significant year-on-year growth in both categories [12] Foreign Direct Investment - FDI commitments rose to US$ 6.8 billion in December, with disbursement increasing to US$ 25.4 billion, reflecting a strong manufacturing sector [14] Inflation and Credit Growth - CPI inflation rose to 2.9 percent in December, while credit growth reached 15.1 percent year-on-year, meeting the SBV's target [17][19] Government Revenue and Expenditure - Revenue collection was 16.2 percent higher than in 2023, while public investment disbursement faced challenges, estimated at 77.5 percent of the approved budget [23]
Vietnam Macro Monitoring, January 2025
Shi Jie Yin Hang·2025-02-04 23:03