产业经济周观点：看好AI应用链主及相关中国优势和稀缺制造能力

Group 1 - The report highlights that domestic AI large models may transform the entire broad consumption landscape and could systematically impact the supply chain, indicating an increase in the potential for widespread AI applications [2][19]. - China's systematic manufacturing capabilities possess a global competitive advantage and are on an upward trend, which may effectively capture the manufacturing demand arising from the AI application industry trend, thereby forming a global competitive edge [3][19]. - The report emphasizes the strong position of China's soft technology, which may further enhance the competitiveness of China's AI ecosystem globally [19]. Group 2 - The report notes that the economic recovery in China is currently influenced by U.S. economic policies, with a focus on the timing of domestic demand policy implementation, particularly in fiscal and real estate sectors, which may represent the main expected differences in domestic demand [3][22]. - It is suggested that the U.S. economic policy under the Trump administration is beginning to materialize, with a potential shift towards weaker fiscal policies, which may impact domestic demand and internal reforms in the U.S. [3][22]. - The report indicates that the recovery of the Chinese economy may influence global capital flows from a macro perspective [22]. Group 3 - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on the AI application chain and related Chinese advantages and scarce manufacturing capabilities, recommending attention to Hong Kong's central state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative, Hang Seng Technology, leading advanced semiconductor firms, military industry, and traditional manufacturing leaders [4][22]. - The report warns of increasing risks associated with U.S. dollar assets and suggests that structural risks in U.S. equities may be greater than systemic risks, particularly due to high valuations influenced by AI and global capital flows [4][22].