华熙生物：2024年业绩承压，静待护肤品板块拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to face significant pressure in its 2024 performance, with a projected decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 70.47% to 75.36% year-on-year due to a transformation phase and a substantial drop in revenue from its cosmetics business [1][8]. - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 52.2, reflecting a potential upside of 7.9% from the current price of RMB 48.4 [3][8]. - The company is undergoing a reform in its functional skincare segment, which is anticipated to lead to a turnaround by 2025, although the timing of this recovery remains uncertain [8]. Financial Forecast Summary - The updated financial forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 5,188 million, a decrease of 9.6% from previous estimates - 2024E net profit is forecasted at RMB 159 million, down 61.3% from prior predictions - The net profit margin for 2024E is expected to be 3.1%, a decline of 4.1 percentage points [2][9]. - For 2025E, revenue is expected to be RMB 5,727 million, a reduction of 16.7%, and net profit is projected at RMB 457 million, down 35.8% [2][9]. - The 2026E forecasts show a continued decline, with revenue expected at RMB 6,420 million and net profit at RMB 520 million, representing decreases of 19.8% and 39.7% respectively [2][9].