海外策略双周报：春节期间海外市场有何变化？

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Deepseek model has triggered a sell-off in US tech stocks, while US Treasury yields have declined and Trump's tariff policies have led to an increase in the value of the US dollar and gold [2][3][5] - The MSCI global stock index fell by 0.44%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down by 1.00% and 1.64% respectively, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.27% [2][5] - In the bond market, the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries decreased by 5 basis points to 4.22% and 4.58% respectively [2][5] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market performed relatively well during the Chinese New Year, with foreign capital inflows observed [2][6][8] Market Performance - The report notes that the US economy remains resilient, as indicated by the Q4 GDP growth rate of 2.3%, which is a slowdown from the previous quarter's 3.1% [5][9] - The report mentions that the core PCE inflation rate remained sticky at 2.8%, with the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts [5][9] - The Deepseek model's impact on AI hardware demand has raised concerns, leading to significant declines in related stocks, particularly Nvidia, which saw a 17.0% drop [5][9] Sector Analysis - The technology and non-essential consumer sectors in Hong Kong benefited from the valuation convergence between US and Chinese tech companies, while the industrial and healthcare sectors experienced larger declines due to tariff impacts [2][8] - The report indicates that the technology information sector and non-essential consumer sector performed well, while industrial and healthcare sectors faced significant declines [8] Policy Implications - The report discusses the potential for Trump's tariff policies to create volatility, with tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China expected to increase inflation and slightly reduce GDP growth [9][10][11] - The report suggests that the uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies may lead to fluctuations in market sentiment [9][10]