AKESO(09926) 交银国际证券·2025-02-05 02:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 87.00, indicating a potential upside of 45.9% from the current price of HKD 59.65 [1][6][12]. Core Insights - The company has recently submitted its third non-oncology product for market approval and has initiated multiple Phase III trials for its product, Ivoris, in various indications beyond lung cancer, reaffirming the "Buy" rating [2][6]. - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, reflecting a more cautious short-term sales outlook, but the long-term peak sales estimates for key products have been maintained or increased [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are revised to RMB 2,411 million, RMB 4,096 million, and RMB 5,861 million respectively, with significant growth expected in the following years [5][14]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 509 million in 2024 to a profit of RMB 595 million in 2025, and further to RMB 1,707 million in 2026 [5][14]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 53.42 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 77.55 and a low of HKD 31.80 [4][6]. Product Development - The company has successfully submitted its eighth innovative drug application, targeting moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, enhancing its product portfolio in the autoimmune field [6][7]. - The ongoing Phase III studies for Ivoris in various cancers are expected to expand its market opportunities significantly, particularly in indications with limited current treatment options [6][7]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value at approximately RMB 70,990 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 87.00 [8].