债市策略思考：蛇年开年债市前瞻

Group 1: Market Overview - After the Spring Festival, marginal liquidity easing may lead to short-term recovery in the bond market, but a "flood irrigation" scenario is unlikely to occur[1] - The 10-year government bond yield has declined to 1.615% before the Spring Festival, indicating limited further upside for bullish sentiment[4] - The overall performance of major asset classes during the Spring Festival was: commodities > bond market > stock market[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated on January 29 that there is no urgency to cut interest rates, as inflation still requires substantial progress[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained a "drip irrigation" approach to open market operations (OMO), with net financing from major banks decreasing to 2 trillion yuan, a historical low[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1 basis point during the Spring Festival holiday, reflecting market expectations of inflation due to tariffs[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Expectations for "stabilizing growth" policies are likely to strengthen before the Two Sessions, with government bond supply gradually increasing, which may lead to a correction in the bond market[4] - The risk of a return to a tight liquidity balance remains, as the central bank's focus on stabilizing the exchange rate may prevent significant liquidity easing[5] - The bond market may enter an adjustment phase if negative factors accumulate and resonate with each other[4]