宏观周报（2月第1周）：美国加征关税政策落地

Macro Overview - The US stock market showed weakness during the Spring Festival trading week (January 27-31), with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, S&P 500 down 1%, and Nasdaq down 1.64%[11] - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the first pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024[3] - The US dollar index rose by 0.96% to 108.516, while the offshore RMB depreciated against the dollar by 778 basis points to 7.3221[11] Trade Policy Impact - On February 1, the US implemented tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, with a 25% additional tariff on products from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods[3] - The tariffs are expected to increase energy prices and inflation expectations, while weakening rate cut expectations, particularly in the absence of tax cuts and other economic countermeasures[3] Market Reactions - Nvidia's stock fell over 15%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $55.225 billion (approximately RMB 400.47 billion), significantly impacting overall market sentiment[3] - Gold prices reached a historic high, surpassing $2800 per ounce, driven by increased risk aversion amid trade conflict concerns[3] Economic Indicators - January's manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.1%, down 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[12] - December's industrial enterprise profit growth rebounded to 11.0% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 7.3% in November, reflecting seasonal and policy impacts[19]