春节假期国内外资本市场重要事件点评：美国对部分国家加征关税，避险情绪增加

Market Performance - US stock markets mostly declined during the week of the Spring Festival (January 27 - February 2, 2025), with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices falling by 1.64% and 1.00%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.27%[2] - The Tokyo Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.90%, while the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 1.91%[2] Bond Market - US Treasury prices rose during the same week, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 5 basis points to 4.58% as of January 31, 2025[3] - The yield curve flattened, with yields on maturities of 3 years and above declining, while yields on 1-year and shorter maturities remained stable or increased[3] Commodity Prices - Gold prices surged significantly, reaching a historical high of $2,812.05 per ounce, an increase of 1.27% during the Spring Festival week[4] - COMEX gold futures peaked at $2,829.00 per ounce[4] Currency Movements - The US dollar strengthened by 0.96%, while the offshore RMB depreciated by 1.07% against the dollar, reaching an exchange rate of 7.3221[5] - The onshore RMB exchange rate was 7.2650 as of January 27, 2025, indicating potential depreciation pressure post-holiday[5] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50% during its January meeting, citing steady economic expansion and rising inflation[6] - Market expectations suggest the earliest rate cut could occur in June, with a probability of 63.5% for rates to fall below 4.25-4.50%[8] Trade Policy - On February 1, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order imposing additional tariffs: a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico[9] - Canada and Mexico may respond with countermeasures against these tariffs[9] Economic Indicators - Movie box office revenue during the Spring Festival period increased by 25.7% year-on-year, totaling 8.24 billion yuan, with an average daily revenue of 1.373 billion yuan[11] - In contrast, tourism prices in Hainan showed mixed trends, with team accommodation prices rising by 7.77% and individual accommodation prices declining by 6.77%[11] Risk Factors - Economic data or corporate earnings may underperform expectations, and US tariff actions could impact A-share investor risk appetite[12] - Domestic growth policies may fall short of market expectations[12]