宏观蒋座：21世纪的麦金利总统？

Economic Policy Insights - Trump emphasizes high tariffs as a means to boost the economy, referencing McKinley's success with similar policies[2] - McKinley’s tariff policies, including the 1890 McKinley Tariff Act, significantly raised import duties to protect domestic industries[3] - The U.S. manufacturing sector's GDP share has declined from over 11.7% in 2013-2014 to around 10%-10.4% from 2020-2023, indicating challenges in revitalizing domestic manufacturing[5] Historical Context and Comparisons - McKinley’s era was characterized by the U.S. as a rising market, contrasting with today's status as a global leader[5] - The U.S. gained overseas territories post-Spanish-American War, marking its emergence as a global power under McKinley[4] - Trump's actions, such as threats of tariffs against Canada and Mexico, reflect a desire to emulate McKinley’s protectionist stance[5] Strategic Implications for China - The current geopolitical climate may provide China with opportunities to expand its market and resources amidst U.S. pressures[6] - The effectiveness of U.S. sanctions against China hinges on maintaining alliances with Europe and Asia, which may be strained by current conflicts[6] - Historical lessons suggest that China should seek alliances to counterbalance U.S. dominance, similar to the strategies employed during the Three Kingdoms period in China[6]