宏观策略周报：DeepSeek或重塑AI产业格局，关注中国科技龙头

Market Overview - Global asset prices have shown divergence, with Chinese assets performing well during the recent holiday period, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.07% and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increasing by 0.61%[7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained stable, slightly increasing from 4.53% to 4.54% during the same period[7] - Precious metals prices have risen significantly, with London gold increasing by 3.05% and silver by 2.32%[7] AI Industry Impact - DeepSeek-R1 has significantly narrowed the gap between China and the U.S. in AI technology, with its performance comparable to OpenAI's o1 version, leading to a reassessment of the value of Chinese tech stocks[19] - The AI investment logic is shifting from hardware to application scenarios, particularly in the "AI + media" sector, which is expected to yield quicker results than other professional fields[19] Investment Recommendations - Focus on DeepSeek-related stocks, as the market's attention on these has surged due to their potential impact on the AI industry[27] - Consider sectors driven by technology and self-sufficiency, including domestic computing power, humanoid robots, and defense industries[27] - Monitor the precious metals sector, as gold prices have stabilized above $2800 per ounce, indicating strong demand[28] Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index's P/E ratio is currently at 14.07, placing it in the historical 27.15% percentile, indicating potential undervaluation[42] - The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.1, indicating a contraction, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI remained slightly above the threshold at 50.1, suggesting resilience in industrial production[23] Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic downturns, volatility in overseas markets, and deteriorating U.S.-China relations, which could impact market stability[55]